In a context of High volatility of interest rates To which has added a loud political noise from some adverse results in Congress and complaints of corruption, the Minister Luis Caputo will have to face this week maturity for $ 13.8 billion, although 34% of them are in the hands of the BCRA.
It is a scenario that seems to be complicated as the electoral campaign progresses, which generates uncertainty among operators in capital markets.
It should be borne in mind that although $ 13.8 billion expires, which are settled on Friday 29 in reality the objective of the Ministry of Economy would be about $ 9.1 billion, since $ 4.8 are automatic renewal, because they are in the hands of the BCRA.
The Ministry of Finance will present on Monday to the market the bond menu to tender the following Wednesday. The holder of that agency Pablo Quirno must adjust the offer well taking into account that there is a low disposition of the banks to be renewed.
Luis Caputo faces new debt maturities amid high volatility due to interest rates
In the first August call The rollover level was 61%, which left about $ 5.8 billion released. This in turn forced economics to put together a new tender in which it offered Tamar bonds to November of this year, while the Central Bank would reform lace standards so as not to leave any weight without destination.
In the market sAnd hopes something similar can happen again because banks actually need liquidity, instead of treasure bonds. What has happened in these cases of calls outside of schedule is that the posterior squeeze was harder than the money than the money that was not renewed.
“The problem is that the rise of lace always on compensates the weights that banks do not renew the treasurefor example, in the last tender of August 13, $ 3.8 billion was released but the BCRA increased the demand in a percentage that represented $ 4.3 billion, so in the result NEto restricts the circulating at $ 0.5 billion, ”says the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA).
The strain argues that “these movements are the explanatory of the volatility we see in interest rates.” “When for one day the weights remain in the street, the interest rates collapse; While when the BCRA rises lace or the treasure absorbs in tenders, interest rates shoot up ”, detailed.
On the call of August 13, the Treasury offered bonds and letters capitalizations (Boncap/Lecap) for the short sections that concentrated the most attention of the market but with rates that reached 69.20% per year to September 12. It was the most demanding title with $ 2 billion.
The bonds that adjusts on the tamar clause that can be applied to lace, on the first call they had a demand of $ 1.5 billion but paying 6 points above wholesale inflation.
Mariano Sardans, from FDI, Dijo a Scope that the new call will be marked by the institutional context. “The key is the political noise, which does not help. The government is nevertheless obsessed In doing what you have to do and you will use all the tools available to continue tightening ”, explained. Sardans considered that “it will use all the tools available or add new.”
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On the other hand, the consultant Outlier questions the political capacity of the government to carry out its program. In a report relativizes the discourse of the economic team that the volatility of the rates is due to the elections and desire of Kirchnerism of destroying Javier Milei.
“While Congress has been contributing its volatility part, it cannot be ignored that the government He had a number that allowed him to shield vetoes and DNU, and that lost them to the heat of confrontations, the inmates themselves and not knowing how to grant in certain issues or do it at the wrong time, As was the case with the Garrahan or the Emergency Law in Disability, with all the debatable that these norms are, ”says Outlier.
What are the maturities of the coming months?
Outlier points out that “The next tender is 27 (it is announced next Monday) and liquidated on 29, expires the S29G5, with a total of $ 12.7b of which the BCRA had approximately $ 4.7 billion, which left approximately $ 8 billion in private hands. ”
“Then we have on September 12 the expiration of the S12S5 of nominal value $ 10.7 billion (Approximately $ 17.1), and on September 30 the S30s9 of nominal value $ 4 billion ($ 6.4 billion effective), Totalizing for September about $ 23.5 billion, of which approximately 61.5% were held by the BCRA ”Add the consultant.
The report adds that “In October we have the Tzxo5, the D31O5, the S31O5 and the T17O5, plus everything that is rolled from the above, and that at the moment add up to $ 18.36 billion of which tAlso between 60% and 70% would also be in the hands of the BCRA. ”
Source: Ambito
