A few days after launching the oleaginous harvest in the United States, China did not yet buy the country governed by Donald Trumpin the midst of commercial negotiations between both powers. In replacement, The Xi Jinping government is making purchases to Brazil and Argentina.
Private projections estimate that they could Sell to 11 million tons of Argentine beans until the end of the yearwhich would imply a currency flow outside of season for the government, but At the cost of reducing the raw material of the oil industry.
In your latest grain market report, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) He stressed that, just one week after the new 2025/26 campaign of soybeans in the United States officially begins, “Exports do not register a single ton that has China as planned destination”.
They explained that it is common that before the new harvest begins, early sales have already been agreed among Chinese American vendors and buyers. “Excluding the years 2018 and 2019 (first ‘commercial war’), Early purchases at this point represented more than 21% of the total export program to China and 12% of the total exports of the campaign, “they exemplified.
The problem for the United States
The agricultural analyst Roman Dante He argued that “China’s demand on the US is still lazy, limited by the commercial war”. And he considered that “An indefinition in this matter that extends could be a problem“For the North American country:” Huge amounts of soy will enter, and if the main buyer is absent, prices could fall strong. “
The BCR explained that the Asian country “It is by far the main market for North American soybeans, representing more than half of exports during the last decade. Even, after the First Commercial War so far, China, on average, It is the destination for 56.5% of the American beans“
In the midst of that scenario, the American Soya Association (ASA) He sent a letter to Trump during the past week requesting for the prioritization of soybeans in the framework of commercial negotiations with China.
“In the document, they ensure that the financial conditions of the producers are alarming and that they cannot survive much time without their main buyer. They explicitly request to reach An agreement that implies the elimination of tariffs for American soybeans and abundant purchase orders by China“The BCR said.
The increase in purchases in Brazil and Argentina
As a counterpart, Roman He said that China increased its soy imports from Brazil in July by 13.9% year -on -year. Complementary, the BCR stressed that Brazil would have embarked 9.6 million tons of soy to China, “40% more than the average of the last five yearsand in the accumulated of 2025 it would already reach 58 million tons, 10 million tons more than the last five years“
In the Argentine case, the agricultural analyst stressed that “both industry and export are with excellent margins” and “could even increase the pore export program.” And he added: “The sale of soybean with price in Argentina continues at a higher rhythm to the average: With almost 760,000 tons exceed the usual 500,000, and in the accumulated 24 million tons or 48% of the production against 40% average are reached. “
For its part, Rosario’s bag He argued that so far this month, “1 million tons of soy have already embarked, of which 750,000 sailed towards the Asian giant.”Meanwhile the line-up forward is still expanding and Towards the end of the month it is scheduled to embark 1 million tons, only to China“They added.
The doubts forward
Consulted by Scopethe agro -specialized consultant, Javier Preciadohe explained that “it is likely that some more soybean bean will come out for China, but That will bring competition with the industry (oil) That you need to keep the factories active and you have to start covering the export program, which goes from October to March. “
In this regard, he commented that there are expectations within the agriculture to end the campaign “With 10-11 million tons of exported soybeans” extra. However, “That would imply getting the industry about 5 or 6 million tons“, which would contribute to a trend already observed for a few months, the” reprimand “of soybeans.” It is the highest participation of exports without added value From the 2018/19 campaign, ”he added.
For his part, Romano said that The Xi Jinping government “could not supply its market only with South American soybeans”. Therefore, “if the commercial war extends, China could also have problems to splice the supply of its demand with the grains of the next harvest.”
Source: Ambito
