In a context of growing financial volatility and rises from dollarthe minister Luis Caputo implemented a work of tweezers to liquefy pre -election volatility. He Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) that leads Santiago Bausili and the National Securities Commission (CNV) They have intensified the controls on the market for stocks and bursats, as confirmed by a high source of the BCRA to Scope.
As it transpired, this measure seeks to stabilize the financial system before the pressures derived from volatility with an eye on inflationary tensions and the depreciation of the weight, at a critical moment prior to the mid -term elections. The monitoring is focused on the real -time monitoring of volumes, prices and participants, with special emphasis on cionwhose operation has been fragmented in three segments (Byma, Mae and Rofex) and has experienced exponential growth in the last year, exceeding $ 2 billion in monthly operations.
At the same time, the goal is prevent distortions that aggravate the liquidity crisis and affect the stability of the financial system. The initiative still responds to the long sequence of normative modifications and controls that have been added since the Elimination of Fiscal Liquidity Letters (Lefi), which fired the rates of cion to record levels, exceeding 80% TNA in short -term operations.
Although it does not imply a direct intervention, the greatest scrutiny marks a change regarding current management, evoking previous administrations practices. “Usually technical teams usually handle cross information, it happens that what has been requested is to have greater access to these sources of informationbeing crossed markets between banking and stock market, ”said the high source of the BCRA, underlining the need for an integrated vision to anticipate destabilizing movements.
In addition, he stressed: “We analyze the dynamics of the money markets every day, the gear market, the title curve. If there is a lack of information about the Caión market, that is split in three And that the last year grew a lot, it is likely to work to have a better monitoring. ”
The source explained that this approach includes “specific requirements” to stock market agents to report detailed data on operations, in order to better analyze “fund flows and detect possible speculative maneuvers” that can impact interest rates or exchange rate.
Electoral uncertainty and dollar
For the Government, political uncertainty, fueled by the recent audios that compromise the main flat and expectation for the results of the September 7 elections, has significantly influenced investors’ decisions, which They chose to disassemble wallets in higher risk assets. This distrust climate is also reflected in the dollar bond market that records falls, while the country risk is located about 800 pointswhich shows the caution of the operators before the electoral scenario and economic tensions.
Yesterday, the BCRA announced a Increase in bank lace as part of a monetary squeery to regulate liquidity. According to communication to 8306, the requirements for all obligations in pesos subject to fractional lace increased by 3.5 percentage pointseffective since September 1. This rise affects deposits in sight, fixed deadlines and Money Market funds, allowing entities to integrate the additional percentage with public titles in pesos acquired in primary subscription, with a minimum period of 60 days.
In addition, the proportion of lace for obligations in view of pesos, reaching 53.5%, with 35 points in cash and 18.5 points in treasure titles, was raised in two percentage points. This measure, which responds to demands from the banking sector, seeks to mitigate volatility in rates, which climbed up to 86% per year in the short term, exacerbated by portfolio disassembly and political uncertainty.
Finance the treasure, part one
Analysts stood out in the last hours that these actions prioritize treasure financing, considering debt matches and the evolution of the exchange rate, which yesterday showed up despite the interventions. Tomorrow, the Treasury will carry out a key tender to renew debt and absorb pesos, with expiration estimated at $ 9 billion this week. The offer will include Lecaps with maturities as of September 30, 2025 (S30s5), January 16, 2026 (S16E6) and February 27, 2026 (S27F6), Designed to concentrate placements on post -election deadlines and restrict short options to September.
This strategy seeks to dry the peso square and relieve pressure on rates. Additionally, Linked dollar titles will be offered with maturities as of September 30, 2025 (D30s5) and January 16, 2026 (D16E6), along with Tamar bonds as of January 16, 2026 (M16E6) and February 27, 2026 (M27F6). These emissions, encouraged by the recent increases in lace, are part of a set of measures to stop the dollar rise and stabilize the economy in the face of the electoral uncertainty of September 7 and October 26.
As they maintain in the Palace of Finance, the focus on larger instruments It seeks to break the vicious circle of increases in rates and difficulties in renovations, prioritizing fiscal sustainability. In an attempt to minimize exposure to electoral uncertainty, as said, in tomorrow’s tender, only two instruments will have maturities before these elections: the LECAP S30S5, which expires on September 30, 2025, and the Title Dollar Linked D30s5, also with expiration on that date.
Source: Ambito
