The increase was motorized by the significant increases in the areas of various goods and services (+4.8%), and transport and communication (+2.9%). Although food and drink variations also exceeded the threshold of 2% average.
After the moderate July inflation accelerationdespite the 14% shoot in the official dollar -with the greatest emphasis on the last week of the month -the City took as a positive signal for the government that the nominal exchange rate is corrected and that there is no strong “Pass Through” (a degree to which a subse of the dollar impacts prices). However, facing August, some consultants warn that The index variation could exceed 2%in four months, A sign that the administration of Javier Milei would not take with good eyes, since its main electoral flag is the decrease in inflation.
In recent weeks, negative indicators for the Government were known: on the one hand, the consumer trust He collapsed In August 13.87% monthly, which represents the greatest fall since December 2023; On the other hand, the Trust in the Government of Milei It sank 13.6% to 2.12 points and marked its lowest level of the Current management. Both indices prepared by the Torcuato Di Tella University.
Another blow to the government, which had an impact on the markets and scaled to the dollar more than 3% in a wheel, was associated with the scandal of corruption that splashes the Government, in the case for alleged coimas linked to the National Disability Agency (Andis), under the command of former Diego Spagnuolo.
August inflation
The survey of Ecogo He accounted for a marked meter of food prices during the fourth week of August ( +0.3% vs. +1.1%). “With this data, inflation in food consumed within the home would amount to 2.3%in August, incorporating the increases in food consumed outside the home (+3.2%), the indicator is located in 2.5%,” they said from the consultant he directs Marina Dal Poggetto.
With these measurements, added to a 0.4% price increase projection for the fifth week of August, The inflation of this month would be 2.1%. This data is still subject to modifications. “Although inflation in food was lower than expected this week (0.3% versus 0.6% projected), the price increase in the rest of the categories kept the indicator in 2.1% as well as last week,” they said from Ecogo.
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Among the most prominent increases of the week were: Telephone services with a weekly increase of 2.7%; while the antihistamines With a rise in 1.4%; and the computers and their accessories There were thirds with an increase in 1.3%.
Projected to the month of full August, the most significant increases would be in the items of Various goods and services (+4.8%), Transportation and communication (+2.9%) and Food and drinks (+2.5%).
Meanwhile, from C&T associated, Although they observed an acceleration in the last week measured, due to an increase in meat and other more vegetable products due to the rains. So much, the economist María Castiglioni He pointed out, in dialogue with Scope, that the mobile average continues to give it below 2%.
From the consultant Balancesmeanwhile, project a 2.1% monthly for the eighth month of the year. In addition, they stressed that in the last two weeks there was a strong rise in vegetables, although they have to relieve them the last week of the month.
Despite the climb of the dollar in the last week, which advanced 4.2%, The currency is still 1.4% below the end of July. Along these lines, Gonzalo Carrera stressed: “In the last week inflation is usually low due to seasonal issues, in general in a exchange scheme, changes in the price index are usually done at the beginning of the month, when the reference dollar is stabilized to a new value.” In addition, he added that “if there is a price rise for political factors, the impact will be seen the first week of September.”
In the face of October, there are still no private consultants, but the survey of market expectations published by the Central Bank (BCRA) provides that price variation does not exceed 2%.
Source: Ambito
