Ferreres’s General Activity Index (IGA) threw a negative variation of 1% Regarding June, contemplating even seasonal factors. It was the second worst data since March 2024, only exceeded the collapse of March of this year, also affected by exchange instability, in the previous agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“The economy It was at a level just 0.3% higher than the one in December last yearevidencing the difficulties it is having to show an expansion in 2025, “the entity passed away.
The annual improvement of economic activity slowed down in July: the industry fell 2.4%
In interannual terms, the IGA threw an improvement again (+3.6%), although it was the most limited since November 2024when the comparisons were made versus the numbers left by the previous government.
The main improvements, compared to July of last year, were seen in financial intermediation (+23.1%), the mining-hydrocarburiferous sector (+10.9%) and construction (+4.9%). At the far end, He highlighted a setback in the manufacturing industry (-2.4%).
Ferreres explained that the bad performance of the industry responds to both a better comparison base, in relation to previous months, as well as “Unusually negative specific data, such as the fall in oil production (-10.1%), and in automotive production (-16.5%)“
Economic activity: the prospects for the remaining of 2025 are not encouraging
So far, All unofficial estimates on July agreed to show a cooling. Analytica estimated a 0.1% decline, balanced calculated by -0.3% and the Province Bank reflected a 0.4% contraction in the last four weeks (which includes the last two weeks of July and the first two of August) for the province of Buenos Aires.
To the stagnation/fall of real wages, which slows consumption, a leap was added in the last month in interest rates that are putting credit at riskkey engine of economic recovery between the end of 2024 and early 2025. In that framework, specialists warn that there may be an increase in delinquency and less dynamism in the financing of companies.
“Top, we see a more complex scenario: The macroeconomic context deteriorated, already political level also begins to emerge cracks in the governmentleading to a general increase in uncertainty. The ruling company is committed to a good electoral result to rearrange expectations and order economic march, “Ferreres said in his report.
Source: Ambito
