A third of companies expect to reduce jobs in the remainder of the year

A third of companies expect to reduce jobs in the remainder of the year

He labor market continues to be a challenge For the Argentine economynot only for the Fall of purchasing power but also for the Unemployment rise– the highest for a first quarter since 2021, at the exit of the pandemic- as well as in the Lack of quality employment creation. A third of human resources specialists plansaccording to a survey of Bumeran.

The indicators forward, far from improving, continue to deteriorate: Private analysts recalibrated their economic growth projections in 2025 and place it below 5%. From LCG and Balances They avizo an increase close to 4.5%, Econviews projects 4.2%, while from Ecogo They also expect a percentage close to 4% or “maybe something above.”

He Economic growth cut It occurs in the middle of a salary stagnationas well as a high Volatility in interest rates and rise in delinquency, which would result in a defensive position that would limit the granting of credits to the private sector. In that line, Gonzalo Carrerasenior economist Balances, He clarified to this medium that the last correction was done in July, so he did not rule out that there are new adjustments to the low. “It is already a rather lean scenario, since it would imply a practically stagnant economy in December, in interannual terms,”he said.

Labor indicators: 42% of informal workers, with an unemployment rise and loss of purchasing power

Informality affects more than 8.8 million people in Argentinawhich is equivalent to 41.8% of employed employees, according to the last data of the labor market of INDEC. Of them, 5.5 million are salaried without contributions and 3.3 million are independent workers not registered in monotax or autonomous.

The type of employee hiring without contributions began an upward curve since 2015, when it had fallen to 32%, and reached up to 36% in the first quarter of 2025. At the other extreme, formal wage employment almost did not grow since 2011, which is mainly explained by the economic stagnation. According to a study by the former Ministry of Productive Development, for each 1% GDP growth, formal employment in companies increased 0.7%equivalent to about 50,000 registered jobs.

In the first quarter of the year, he went up to 7.9% From the 7.7% registered in the same period of 2024 and touched its highest level since 2021when the country was recovering from the fall in production by the Coronavirus pandemic. By extrapolating the data to the total population, in Argentina there are 1,790,000 unoccupied, according to the calculations of Scope.

The registered salaries, Meanwhile, they mark a strong fall of 5.5% of purchasing power Since November 2023, with a stronger fall in the assets of the public employees who suffered a real 14.3% loss In that period, while Private scored a real drop of 0.6%.

The fall of the assets, which are in a historical minimum, resulted in a Pluriempleo risewhich went from representing 8% in 2013 to 12% in 2024according to a report of the Training and Work and Development Studies Program (CETYD) of the National University of San Martín (UNSAM). The rise also occurs within the framework of the increase in employment on digital platforms that is not regulated.

Loss of jobs

A Bumeran survey reveals that during the First semester of the year 66% of human resources specialists reported to have layoffs in companies. Of the firms that reduced their staff, 36% stressed that it was due to a cost reduction.

Although there are still no indicators of Second quarter unemploymentsince the INDEC will publish the indicator on September 18, from CP-Consultants They said that it will be a complicated quarter: although there is a growth rate growth after 4 months of fall, there is also a contraction of the entry rate, which implies that “total employment stopped falling at the expense of greater freezing of the economy: less people left their jobs, but companies hired less personal.”

Image

In that sense, the economist Federico Pastrana He stressed that employment is in a “stagnation”. While a salaried type growth is seen in May, according to SIPA data, it is minimal.

“In the second quarter the unemployment rate usually improves due to issues seasonalalthough last year with the recession of the first semester there was no substantial improvement (7.7% in the first 2024 quarter to 7.6% in the second). Now, what can happen is that it gives you a little below the first quarter of 2025 and even in front of last year, but With the stagnant economy and a very low job creation, the trend is stagnant“The specialist said.

Image

In turn, in a context of drop in income there is also greater pressure in the labor market, where more people are in search of a job to achieve a salary improvement.

Looking ahead to the next semester, from Bumeran they reported that 31% of human resources specialists still plan to reduce employee template.

In addition, 47% of human resources specialists anticipate a regular evolution of the labor market in the next semester, with a negative growth compared to the projections of 2024: the forecast that the evolution is bad and very bad rose from 29% to 30%, although the projections that it is good or very good fell from 31% to 23%.

Source: Ambito

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest Posts

Robert Habeck: The helplessness of a failed

Robert Habeck: The helplessness of a failed

“Markus Lanz” The great perplexity of Robert Habeck Listen article Copy the current link Add to the memorial list Robert Habeck’s farewell tour continued on