In the menu that Minister Luis Caputo can be used, the cutting of funds, transfers, and total public works closure can be included. The market believes that 1.6% of the PBI of fiscal surplus promised to the IMF would not be reached
Before the main entrepreneurs of Argentina gathered in the Inter -American Council of Commerce and Production (CICYP), The President Javier Milei promised to deepen the policy of chainsaw to the extreme, in order to maintain the fiscal surplus. This depends of the projects promoted by the opposition in Congress that reinforce the expense in some items, as is the case of the aid to the disabled, or that subtracts funds from the national state, as is the case of the fuel tax.
But strictly speaking, without the political factor in the middle, the National Government was already bound this year to have high levels of tax collection to replace what the country tax generatedwhich was approximately 1 point of GDP. The market understands that That goal is resentful because the margins of growth of tax resources would be below the expected. They estimate that instead of 1.6% of GDP signed with the IMF in April, 1.3% will be reached in the original agreement, changed after the BCRA It did not comply with the goal of accumulation of international reserves, a decision that was made in the economic team, to avoid a rise in inflation.
Cohen.Fiscal
“We continue to consider that Income is not insured in this economy, especially when the government lowered the aliquot of those of exports to agriculture. Obviously that will cost him, the country tax had also lowered, ”explained the economist of Cohen Financial Allies, Martín Polo, in a talk for investors.
There he indicated that the tax decline that he added this year with the Reduction of withholdings “leave the government much more exposed to apply much more chainsaw than you are doing”. Which, in turn, explained “It generates that tension we are seeing this year in Congress in which the Government did not win a vote in the enclosure. “
The analyst recalled the 1.6% surplus goal assumed by the government itself even before leaving it fixed in the agreement with the IMF. “It seems to us a challenging theme of here in the coming months, it seems to me that they will have to work hard for that, unless they feel in the box and continue with this tension for the brake on public works and transfers to province”He added.
In that sense, the economist rescued that despite the most complicated context “LFiscal discipline is maintained and this year we will have surplus, perhaps 1.3%. ”
Luis Secco: “The fiscal issue is committed beyond Congress”
For example, the economist Luis Secco He agreed that “the fiscal issue is committed this year, beyond the projects that were approved in Congress, because The expense is increasing above inflation and income grows less. ”
“Already in the five Months that remain must be made a bigger effort than the one made last year to reach 1.6%. Those of us who follow fiscal numbers know that the situation is not as baggy as last year. They will be five hard months, ”he explained.
According to ark data Fiscal collection grew in real 6% terms in January; 12%, February; 7%, March; 6.5% and 6.5 April. Then 18% collapsed in May Due to the high comparison floor that left 2024 due to the effect of evaluation on companies. There was an unusual increase in profits. Then in June the income grew only 2% in real terms and in July 4.6%. In order to replace the resources lost this year with country tax and reduction of retentions to the field higher economic growth levels would be needed than they are registered now.
And due to the level of very high interest rates that are now It is very difficult for the economy to resume, at least until after the October elections.
Source: Ambito
