He Personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) It was 2.6% year -on -year in July, according to the expectedaccording to the Office of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce (Bea). This is the favorite indicator by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to measure the evolution of the prices of the American economy, in a context in which the monetary authority He slid the possibility of cutting interest rates.
In addition to the data against the same month last year, It was also known that prices increased 0.2% against June. Also, the PCE At the underlying level, that is, without the categories of more volatile prices, it was also online due to analysts. At an year -on -year level it was 2.9%, slightly above 2.8% of the previous month. In monthly terms It was 0.3%same percentage as in June.
The data did not generate a positive reaction on Wall Street. According to him Fedwatch Measure CMA, market expectations to a 0.25 -point rate cut in September They remained around 87.2% After knowing the number, a percentage similar to the previous days.
In this sense, in Personal Investor Portfolio (PPI) They stated that “the inflation data confirms that the Fed could lower the rate in September” and mentioned that “the probability implicit in fixed income futures is 88%”, which leads to a decline in the yields of the treasure bonds. “The 2 -year rate falls 6 basic points, while the 10 -year -old back 3 basic points,” they detailed.
Similarly, Diego Martinez Burzaco Country Manager of Inviu He held Scope that the data came out as expected the market and “It should be ‘on track’ this idea that the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates at the September meeting” In 25 basic points.
Anyway, I clarify that “This will be conditioned by labor market data” that will be known on the first Friday of September. “There we are going to see a little more the dynamics of whether the US economy is effectively decelerating or not,” he said. Meanwhile, he added, “there is a profits in actions today.”
Persistent inflation
However, the number consolidates an inflation scenario above 2% per year set by the monetary authority. In fact, the PCE has been maintained above that goal for 53 months to the thread, which marks The second longest period since the early seventiesas they remembered from Pepperstone.
For its part, the chief economist of Navy Federal Credit Union, Heather LongHe said that “inflation clearly increased since the minimum of April, but the total scope of tariffs was not yet reflected.”
From PIF Invest They explained that “the services are still ‘hot’, while goods and energy slowed down, which is interesting considering that tariffs directly affect the goods, not services.”
And they added: “Today’s data leave FED monetary policy expectations. The next key report will be next Friday’s employment data. “
Meanwhile, the Democrats of the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives issued a statement holding the American president for the data: “Donald Trump promised to lower the costs, but instead prices continue to rise. The only ones who benefit are their billionaire donors, who will benefit from the huge tax exemptions of their ‘great and ugly law’. “
Trump’s pressures to the Fed
The fact is known after a week ago in the symposium of Jackson Hole, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, questioned and systematically attacked by Trump, open the door to a cut in interest rates at your next meeting.
To this is added the dismissal of the governor of the Fed Lisa Cook by the Republican Head of State, together with the subsequent judicialization of that decision by the official.
It is a new element that causes disruption in the agency, while the American president seeks to get key places in the institution for 2026.
Source: Ambito
