The Traditional Storm of Santa Rosa This year arrives with an additional seasoning: according to the Rosario (BCR) trade stock market, a cyclogenesis could download between 90 and 130 millimeters on the north and northwest Buenos Airesepicenter of the core region. The warning is not limited to immediate agronomic risk. Behind each hectare underwater is the contribution in foreign currency that agricults promises for the second semester, in a year in which more than U $ 10,000 million in agricultural exports until December.
The BCR report indicates that the phenomenon will not be punctual: it will affect the entire Pampas region, From Buenos Aires to Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and La Pampa. The focus of concern, however, is in the east strip of the core region, where soils no longer have the capacity to absorb more water. There is a substantial part of the Wheat production and next corn sowing Early, both decisive crops for the flow of dollars towards the end of the year and early 2026.
Trigo and corn could suffer the effects of water excess
Wheat was consolidated so far as the positive photo of the campaign. 85% of the lots in the nucleus region are in excellent state and 15% in good conditionwith yields projected around 50 quintals per hectare. After years of drought, winter rains had returned the expectation of a record campaign.
But that expectation faces a clear limit: the saturation of profiles. Engineers of Carlos Pellegrini warned that “With just 20 mm, the situation can get worse”. In María Susana they added that saturation already compromises the first week of September corn planting.
The BCR collects similar testimonies in Aldao: “The wheats are divine, but if we have abundant rains every week, we will be very complicated”. In addition, the water excess triggers the health risk: in Bigand yellow spot was already detected and in Entre Ríos the fear is the Fusarium, two diseases that can cut the yield and affect the commercial quality of the grain.
A fall of just three quintals per hectare in the core region could imply a Superior loss Au $ 200 million in wheat exports.
The other Great bet of the 2025/26 campaign is early corn. After years when the lack of water forced to delay the plantings, the producer returned to plan September as a central date. The sowing intention in the core region rose to 1.9 million hectares, compared to 1.6 Mha last year. 92% would go to early dates, which represents a deep change in agricultural strategy.
Bustos Corral Engineers celebrate the possibility of sowing again with water in the profile: “With this scenario, potential is reached to accommodate the critical period at a moment less vulnerable to thermal stress.” In addition, sowing early allows you to access the price of scoop in March, which improves margins against soybeans.
The problem is that the machinery needs floor to enter the lots, and in the east the situation is already critical. The Rosario entity remembers that in the North Buenos Aires center there are 1 million hectares flooded and 2 million affected. A delay in planting not only would compromise the potential yield, but also the export calendar. If the corn is not sown in a timely manner, part of the offer planned for March and April could be run through the middle of the year, affecting the currency entry curve.
September (by rains) can define the yearor Económonkey
Today the water map shows two realities. In the west of the core region, where the annual accumulated are less than 700 mm, the producers celebrate the chance of returning to a “normal” productive scheme. In Corral de Bustos they emphasize that “I had not been sowing early corn for years ”. Some even evaluate corn schemes on wheat, something that is only possible with loaded profiles.
In the east, on the other hand, the lots do not support more water. With just 20 mm, additional risks of wheat plants and planting delays are activated. That strip concentrates a key production volume and that is where the economic impact would be stronger.
Yes rains from Santa Rosa become an extreme event, The damage will not be measured only in yields. They could also alter the export flow, delay liquidations and generate a bump in the entry of dollars since the contribution of the wheat-maíz complex is decisive.
Behind each flood hectare is not only the effort of a producer, but also the expectation of a country that has the resources generated by the field, so the Santa Rosa Stormmore than a climatic phenomenon, it can become a central economic factor in the final stretch of 2025.
Source: Ambito
