The economist Salvador di Stéfano, better known as the “Guru del Dollar Blue” again evaluated the economic course of the government of Javier Mileiafter a tense week for the ruling party on the political scene, marked by the circulation of audios that allude to alleged acts of corruption in the National Disability Agency (Andis) in which the Secretary General of the Presidency is mentioned, Karina Milei, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Martín Menem, and to the undersecretary of Institutional Management of the Presidency, Eduardo “Lule” Menem.
In this scenario, and with the national elections on the horizon, Di Stéfano analyzed that today two forces coexist with “High firepower”: On the one hand, a congress dominated by the opposition that seeks to expand spending, and on the other, one Executive Power that resorts to the veto to sustain the fiscal balance and monetary discipline. In that confrontation, the economist said that the government will not pass “shocks” as long as it maintains the surplus and warned of the wear of the pre -alleged era.
Salvador Di Stéfano’s analysis on the economic direction of the government
One of the first points on which he put the focus of Stéfano was the uncertainty in the markets, in the middle of the strip and loosen before the October elections. “As this change of rule in the economy is generated so much uncertainty, Many people get nervous and the demand for pesos falls. And as the government sees that can go against the dollar or prices, They are using all the springs in the BCRA to restrict the currency offer. And when that happens, automatically The interest rate goes to the demon and that affects credit in the country“, held.
Along the same lines, he pointed out that the rates no longer allow access to financing as before: “You were going to buy a car, a motorcycle or an appliance And you had reasonable rates, today you don’t have them anymore. And in your company, if you lacked a sleeve, I asked for a current account or went to the bank to change a check you also had a reasonable rate. Today that went to the devil. “
For Di Stefano, this pulse will continue during the next two months, Until the October elections arrive. “There is a rare -raised climatein Wall Street they are looking that the opposition wants another economic plan and the government wants anotherand in the middle there is economic activity and we are, because this will leave unemployed people and stagnant indexes, “he warned.
Despite that scenario, the “Blue dollar guru” said that the economic program is sustainable, as long as The surplus is conserved. “The Government It has fiscal surplus, While that maintains and capital the Central Banknothing weird is going to happen. Today is like Tyson. And there is someone who goes to buy dollars and wants to fight. It is crazy to go to challenge the government When he has so much international support and an election ahead, but hey, there are people who evaluate who can beat Tyson“He graphic.
“The market is defined by young people, the vote is there, And we already know who they are going to vote. It is the first time that generationally the children put a president to the father. (…) The truth is by people, “he concluded in the face of October legislative elections.
Greater control to the dollar: the discomfort among the banks for the constant regulatory changes of the BCRA grows
The Central Bank (BCRA) implemented new limitations that surprised the financial sector again, in order to control the liquidity of the banks and relieve the pressure on the dollar in a key electoral context. The measure was communicated through the Communication “A” 8311published this Friday, and again generated criticism from the bank: they warn that constant changes make planning and cause losses, deepen the discomfort of the sector.
Among the provisions, two of the modifications will enter into force in December, while a third began to rule this Friday, coinciding with the closing of the month. This measure prohibits entities from increasing their net negative position in foreign currency compared to the last business day of the previous month.
The objective of the regulations is to limit the “synthetic” positions that banks usually close at the end of the month, When future dollar contracts win. The traditional operation consisted of selling dollars in cash (“shortage”), place the weights at the rate to perform “Carry Trade” and buy exchange coverage through future dollar contracts, provided that the futures rate was less than the rate in pesos.
According to the scope, the banks expressed a strong rejection of these unexpected changes, qualifying the management of the BCRA as “Total unpredictability.” They point out that the measure complicates the coverage of the end of the month, forcing entities to decide between being barefoot or accept the high rates of the futures market.
Source: Ambito
