The market warns that the excess of government confidence in the economic model is playing a bad pass in the fiscal level. Tax collection is not strong enough to compensate the tax sales granted in 2025.
In August, for example, the income of Value Added Tax (VAT) That is one of the main sources of government resources that are shared with the provinces, it hardly rose. Would have improved between 0.2% and 0.4%.
The information arises from the data of the automatic shipments to the provinces analyzed by the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (Iaraf) and the consultant Politikon Chaco.
According to the IARAF, VAT would have risen 0.4% real, while for Politikon it was 0.2%. Anyway, That would reflect an important cooling of consumption in July, Because we must bear in mind that the collection of that tax is calculated with the billing of the previous month.
While the Economy grows at a rate of 5% or 6% year -on -year for comparison with 2024 -What was a year where the activity recently repared to give birth to November- in the Unseested monthly measurements shows amending.
The government expected a Much higher rebound that allowed him to recover the funds he lost due to the completion of the country taxwhich contributed about 1% of GDP in addition to this, granted a permanent reduction of retentions to the field after June, to which adds the elimination of this tribute to exports from regional economies.
It does not mean that the collection falls in relation to last year, but It does not grow enough depending on the commitment assumed before the IMF to reach 1.6% of surplus primary prosecutor In the market it is expected that there is a resurgence of the “chainsaw” in the remainder of the year. Some of this anticipated President Javier Milei at the lunch of the Inter -American Council of Commerce and Production (CICYP).
Copartitioning turns on a yellow light
Co -participation data indicates that In August they were sent to the provinces automatically $ 5.1 billion, a figure that marks a growth of a real 2.1%. What explains, basically, is the collection of Profit tax, which records a real 11% improvement because this year companies pay higher advances than last year, due to A regulatory change.
If what has contributed profits and VAT Throughout the first 8 months, according to the IARAF, there is an improvement of just 1% real. These are the two taxes that most contribute to the collection that are shared with the governors.
As Polyikon Chaco details “Internal taxes and other co -participated had negative performances (-22.8% and -23.5% respectively).” The taxes that show improvements are the Liquid Fuel Tax, with 47.8%; The electric power regime, 204.3% and the monotax, 223.9%. These are increases related to regulatory changes compared to 2024.
This Monday the Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA) will announce the numbers last month.
Source: Ambito
