It was also a month of High rates volatility After the end of the Lefis in July that generated a great offer of pesos. In the attempt to dry the square, the Ministry of Economy launched different tenders to ROLL Debt, even some extraordinary validating rates of up to 86%. He Central Bank (BCRA) He did his share and uploaded the lace until the 53.5% As of this Monday in an intention to limit the offer of pesos.
However, this strategy also generated a brake on the demand for credit, for the high rates, generating greater cooling of the economy. In this scenario, private analysts emphasized their economic growth projections in 2025 and located below 5%. From LCG and Balances They avizo an increase close to 4.5%, Econviews projects 4.2%, while from Ecogo They also expect a percentage close to 4% or “maybe something above.”
August inflation: consultants foresee that it exceeds 2%
The main consultants refined their measurements at the close of the eighth month of the year and foresee that inflation can reach and even exceed 2%. However, two optimistic data are that of C&T ASSOCIATES and Analytica, that foresee a deceleration of the price index. Would have closed in the 1.6% and 1.8%respectively, in front of the 1.9% of July IPCalthough both measure the variation only in Greater Buenos Aires.
The casualties, according to the consultant of María Castiglioni & Camilo Tiscorniais explained by the decrease of the components linked to tourism such as hotel, packages and aircraft transport, as well as the clothing cut by seasonal settlement. At the other extreme, the vegetablesanother key seasonal item, They had a 10% rise.
Balancesthat measured inflation around 2%meanwhile, highlighted the car rise (+4.8%), Rentals (+3.8%), attention private health (+3%) and expenses (+2.7%), while Non -seasonal food and drinks 1.5%advanced. In this way, the core, which is the variation that the government takes since it excludes seasonal and regulated variation, accelerated to 1.9% From the 1.5% which marked in July.
“The exchange volatility had a limited transfer at prices, within the framework of government efforts to contain the depreciation of the weight and that allowed the month to be closed without significant shocks. This was achieved at the expense of A monetary policy that continued to press high rates, which will have a negative impact on consumption and economic activity. At the same time, the political and financial climate aggravated the stage: uncertainty and distrust remains at high levels, in the midst of an electoral process without clear results in sight. Once the electoral instance is over, the panorama should offer greater predictability to resume greater economic stability, ”he analyzed Clara AlesinaEconomist of the Freedom and Progress Foundation, which measured a variation of prices around 2%.
Along the same line, Ecogo He closed the measurement around 2%, although in the midst of political noise within the government, they stressed that there is a “certain disagreement in expectations”, which generates an acceleration forward. However, Rocío Bisang He stressed that they also play a central role ” practically stagnant salarieswhich results in a Consumption brake and puts a stop to the increases “; although, in parallel, “the Import opening Strengthen the downward prices on the side of the offer. ”
Orlando J. Ferreresmeanwhile, measured a price increase around 2.1% Monthly in August. “As for the main items, Various goods, food and drinks and equipment and operation of the home they headed the rises of the month, registering monthly increases of 6.5% and 2.9% and 2.6% respectively, followed by Transportation and Communications and Health that presented a variation of 2.2%, and 1.9%respectively, “they said.
The consultant Pxq, which was the most pessimistic for the measurement of inflation and placed it in the 2.2%, He stressed that among the divisions Food and drinks, transport and housing, water, electricity and other fuels They concentrated 60% of the increases.
“Transport led the rises of the month with an increase of+3.5%drive Housing rentals (+4.0%), and electricity rates (+2.8%), gas (+2.2%) and water (+0.7%).
Source: Ambito
