Although there is no specific law, good practices advise that the pricing entities update their reference basket every 15 years, to reflect real consumption habits of citizens. The last time this happened seriously among us was in 2005.
Beyond the greatest accuracy in data collection, the gravitational is some changes in the structure of the index, where, for example, housing and services whose weighting in the current index is 9.44%, they would go to 14.5%, transport from 11% to 14.3% and communications from 2.83% to 5.2%, while food and non -alcoholic beverages would fall from 26.96% to 22.7%, and health from 8.03% 6.4% (I know, I agree … with a population that ages and the release of prepaid, this looks like a nonsense).
On October 22, Roberto’s son asked him for the resignation (in good Castilian: “He kicked”) to Analía Calero, the director of statistics and prices in charge of the elaboration of the new index since 2021 arguing “operational issues and form of work.” The sin of Analia? Have the index ready since the beginning of that month, with the approval of the IMF, together with an update of the construction and salary price index. Was it your “work form”, work well?
The reality is that it is not the first time something like this happens in Indec. At the end of January 2007 Graciela Bevacqua, in charge of the CPI since 1992, was “induced” by the Secretary of Commerce Guillermo Moreno to resign, after refusing to modify the inflation data. But the story does not end here, since while he dedicated himself to private activity, the ruling party then initiated a series of judicial causes – it was dismissed in all – seeking to silence it.
Given his “heroin of statistics” status, among Mauricio Macri’s first measures in December 2015 was his reinstatement to Indec only to be displaced shortly after refusing to “delay the diffusion of statistics”
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Returning to the delayed future/new index, the “Quid” after the delay is that the change in the counterweights implies, by a mere mathematical issue, a jump around 1% of the IPC of the month in which this happens and adds about 16 points to 118% accumulated in 2024 -this will not see it because it will be reported forward, not since 2018 as it should happen.
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Of course, the scandals with Marco in Indec do not end here, in the middle of last month the door was opened to Guillermo Manzano, in charge of the Directorate of Statistics of Life Conditions, in Spanish, the one who measures poverty and work (without replacement) it does well).
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A week later, Marco Lavagna announced – third time – that the new algorithm was ready. “We finish the work last March and we are waiting to be able to implement it”, “internally, we have the new basket finished; we analyze and test it”, “it is not true that we want to hide data or that the change alters drastically the results”, of course for some reason they have chosen not to make these numbers known.
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Sooner or later the government will have no choice but to publish the new CPI, of course the better, so they are doing the impossible to delay this “set -up.”
As the INDEC director slides the cause of that delay has been smooth and plain, political convenience:
“We are in moments that are not the most indicated to make these changes, which are very sensitive, and we are waiting for the time to do them”, “they are indices that always generate many noises for one side and for the other”, so “you have to be careful when it is done”, “If everything goes well we wait after the elections to implement the change, we are with a technical discussion if 2026 with the new index to have the years comparable.
Alongs incredibly prestigious, even able to withstand the will of dictatorial governments, since Guillermo Moreno intervened it, INDEC is little more than a puppet of the Minister of Economy on duty. If some prestige is left, it is only thanks to some of their women -and a few men -who have managed to face the pressures of all kinds.
Source: Ambito
