Economic activity already adds three months in low. In recent weeks the decline has its fundamental root in the volatility of rates and stagnation in credits.
The economic activity of the province of Buenos Aires (PBA) suffered its sixth consecutive weekly fall and in August accumulated a 1.4% contraction. In this way, the economy of the largest district in the country arrives extremely beaten to the elections next Sunday, as a consequence of the “monetary squeeze” implemented by the national government.
This was reported by the Province Bank (Bapro) through the Pulsopbathe brand new index that is built with more than 1,200 daily data and an artificial intelligence algorithm. The objective of this automated system is to advance to official activity data, which are usually published with two months of lag, both nationally and provincial.
Pulsopba data showed a negative variation of 0.2% in the fourth week of August, identical to the one that had been registered in the previous week. When observing the complete series, it can be observed that The fall has been deepening since Mayafter the rebound that had been seen in April.
Monetary squeech and rates: the impact on credits and delinquency
The decline of the last weeks It has its fundamental root in the spin of monetary policywhich is now focused on the control of the amount of money in the economy, leaving the rates freed to the supply and demand of liquidity. As was predictable, this It caused strong volatility in yields in pesos, thus slowing consumption and investment decisions.
The president of the Bapro, Juan Cuattromoexplained during a conference that the elimination of liquidity management instruments (Lefis) and the increase in lace generated a “instability trajectory”, which negatively affected the offer of credits. Indeed, the bank indicated that Advances in current account and the discount of documents to companies fell about 10%.
The head of the entity expressed his surprise for the moment in which he modified the monetary policy, since, according to the national government itself, inflation was in Baja. “While it is justified with the need to discipline prices, What one observes is rather an exchange policy decision for the elections”He said.
Finally, Cuattrome showed his concern about the Growth in the delinquency of families. “Money in credit cards is growing, especially in minimal payments, in a context where they are often used to buy food or pay basic services,” he said. This situation, he said, generates “Anguish in homes” and anticipates greater complications.
Source: Ambito
