The next few weeks They will be crucial for the commercial policy of Donald Trump. Last Friday, the Appeals Court for the Federal Circuit He decided that the majority of tariffs imposed by the president were illegal and gave time to the US government Until October 14 To appeal the ruling before the Supreme Court. If the decision is ratified, the administration should reverse and return more than U $ S96,000 million collected by new surcharges to imports. Although there are legal vericuetos with which you could maintain tariff measures, according to analysts.
The ruling, with 7 votes in favor and 4 against, addressed the legality of the “reciprocal” tariffs Taxes in April as part of its commercial war, as well as the taxes imposed in February China, Canada and Mexicolinked, according to Trump’s administration, to fentanyl traffic. In both cases, It was covered by the Law on International Emergency Economic Powers (IEEPA) of 1977.
For that reason, The Court’s decision did not affect tariffs imposed under other regulationsas is the case of taxes on imports of steel, aluminum and cars, which were promoted by section 232 of the Commercial Expansion Law of 1962.
Trumpism strategy: fentanyl and plan B
Trump lamented the decision of A court that called “highly supportive” and said that “if these tariffs disappeared, It would be a total disaster for the country “. However, he hoped that The decision would be revoked “with the help of the Supreme Court.”
The secretary of United States Treasury, Scott Besenthe was confident on Monday that this happens, although he also raised to the press that “there are many other powers that can be used, not so efficient or so powerful,” in case the decision is adverse.
For example, he cited the case of section 338 of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff law, which It allows the president to impose tariffs up to 50% for five months against imports from countries that are determined that discriminate against US trade.
Besent said that he was preparing a legal report for the United States Attorney, who will supervise the appeal of the Government before the Supreme Court, where It will underline the urgency of addressing decades of commercial imbalances and stopping the flow of illegal fentanyl in the United States.
“If this is not a national emergency, what is it?” Besent asked, referring to the 70,000 deaths due to fentanyl -related overdose In the United States. “When can IEEPA be used if not for fentanyl?”
What will happen if Trump loses?
In a recent analysis, the senior Research Staff of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Piie), Alan Wolffhe stated that if the Supreme Court is right to the Court of Appeals, “There would be a huge bureaucracy”because “Each importer would have to show that he paid the tariff, how much he paid and on what date“
So much, he said that “This bureaucratic requirement would be a relatively lower issue Compared to the idea that the error caused by a poorly applied tariff would have to be paid for all victims. “
Wolff He also argued that even if the tariffs are annulled, “they could be re -issued by virtue of the president’s retaliation authority (Section 301 of the 1974 Commerce Law) to combat unfair commercial practices.”
Therefore, “Even if in some cases the use of IEEPA is declared inadmissible, tariffs could be imposed under section 301”. In any case, this regulation demands that an investigation by the commercial representative’s office be carried out first. That was the regulations that Trump launched in his commercial war with China in his first term.
Within that same law, in addition, there is section 122, which allows the Head of State 15% tax imports from countries with which the United States has large commercial deficits for 150 days. “The president has various resources to continue his foreign economic policy. The return to certainty in US commercial relations could still be far,” Wolff added.
Tariff collection
Since Trump’s tariffs entered into force in April, their taxaccording Forbes. In July, customs tariffs fired U $ 28,000 millionwhich represented an annual increase in 273%. Customs tariffs represented U $ 27,000 million In income in June, U $ 22,000 million in May and U $ S16,000 million In his month of debut.
In dialogue with Financial scopethe economist of the Cato Institute Colin recordow He stated that Trump’s argument that the current commercial deficit is an emergency situation “is not clear at all.” And he deepened: “The big question is whether this is a situation that we should look for. The United States has had commercial deficit during the last 50 years and during all that time the economy grew“
In his opinion, United States “should be in a bad situation if the commercial deficit were so bad”. Instead, he stated that “a useful thing that Trump could do would reduce the fiscal deficit.” In this sense, from Piie they calculated that the federal government deficit contemplated in the 2025 fiscal year budget is U $ S1,865 billion. In other words, The proceeds so far by the tariffs equals 5% of the fiscal deficit.
To that is added the debt of the United States, close to the U $ 37.2 billionaccording to him Treasury Department. Besent himself had advanced that Trump’s administration could allocate part of tariff revenues to reduce national debt. “I think we can do it at some point”he declared during an interview on August 19, adding that he and President Trump They were “totally focused on paying the debt”.
Source: Ambito
