The cooling of the economy seems to have extended during Augustaccording to the first sector data. The trend extends the fall recorded in July, in a context marked by the rates volatility and of dollarand became exacerbated in recent weeks as a result of Monetary tourniquet Monetary applied by the economic team. Since April, the activity does not show recovery signs,While the government points all cannons to control the change rate for the electoral process.
In your latest report, Empiria He explained that “the messy departure from the Lefis scheme It started two months of extreme volatility and very high ratesduplicating, for example, the cost of advances to companies and passes from the Central Bank. “
Similarly expressed himself Balancesthat in his last estimate of activity he had raised “A more negative perspective since August (compared to July) after the hardening of monetary policy”a situation that makes them “foresee A dissectionalized fall in the activity in the remainder of the year. “
Red economy traffic light during August
At the sector level, this Tuesday it was known that The economic activity of the province of Buenos Aires suffered its sixth consecutive weekly fall and in August accumulated a contraction of 1.4%, according to the Pulseopba index of the Province Bank.
In the consumption sector, the Córdoba Chamber of Commerce (CCC) registered a 3% decline in the sale of units and 9% in profitability, compared to the previous month. Besides, The average ticket in August was $ 103,400showing a lower figure than in Julywhen it was $ 122,300.
At the collection level, the taxes associated with internal consumption showed “shy growth,” according to LCG. “VAT DGI increased 1% real annual and adds the ninth consecutive month on the rise, although in deceleration against the rate of 6% real annual that registered in the previous 3 months. The same applies to credits and debit, which 2% real annual, against 6% real annual in the previous quarter, grew“They argued from the consultant.
The dissonant note was The fuel tax, which grew by 47% year -on -year in real terms. Although from LCG they clarified that that It was not necessarily due to an increase in consumptionbut “following the adjustment of the tax and price increases above the average inflation.”
In the construction sector, one of the most beaten since November 2023, Cement consumption fell 0.6% monthlyaccording to ECONVIEWS based on data from the Association of Cement Manufacturers Portland (AFCP). The same consultant also said that the patents of cars fell 3.1% and that of 1% motorcycles.
For its part, Loans in pesos to the private sector rose 2.4% desestationalized against Julywhile consumer loans increased 2.7%, although commercial loans fell 3%. In turn, social security contributions dropped 1.1% in the monthly comparison.
What can happen forward?
For analysts of Empiriato reach 5.5% growth by 2025 raised in the budget and in official estimates, “the economy must grow to a average rhythm of 0.9% monthly Throughout the second semester “, something they considered” unlikely. “
They said that if a modification to the exchange band regime occurs in November “I could distend the peso market stress and recover the dynamics of production and consumption”. Therefore, “eventually, a post -election rebound in the last quarter could bring 4% average expansion in 2025”.
However, they clarified that this rise would be “pure statistical drag: the production level of December 2025 would be similar to December 2024”.
The latest official activity data are June, while During July the consensus of the consultants is that the activity fell: Eco Go estimated a monthly drop of 1%, as well as Orlando Ferreres. For its part, the Economic Cycle Research Center (CICEC) calculated a drop of 0.5%, while balancing -0.3%.
Source: Ambito
