The fact is that, depending on what happened during the last hours, the operations of sale of the treasure in the market have allowed to set A new implicit roof in the $ 1,362 For its sales of dollars. The measure implemented by the minister Luis Caputo, That seeks to guarantee liquidity and stability in a context of high electoral uncertainty, reflects the government’s strategy to contain volatility before the legislative elections of next Sunday 7.
However, limited treasure reserves and market projections generate Doubts about the sustainability of this bet. Quirno vehemently defended the strength of the official economic program and The low profile of Luis Caputo caught his attention in recent hours. In a recent interview, the secretary said: “There is no band scheme breakage. We continue with the same program, but we intervene to prevent episodes of illiquidity in the market. On Monday, for example, a Bank of Chinese origin (ICBC) tried to lift the dollar $ 40 with just $ 30 million. We are prepared for these trout operations and to defend the Argentines. ”
According to the official, the treasure interventions, which already sold between US $ 100-120 million on Tuesday YU $ 50 million on Wednesday, do not affect the reserves of the Central Bank, or the IMF funds, and were consulted and approved by the international body.
Dollar: what can happen on Monday
The “Quirno Roof” of $ 1,362, however, It is below the current level of the wholesale dollar ($ 1,375) and of the projections of the futures market, which anticipate a change rate of $ 1,406 At the end of September and $ 1,556 For December, overcoming the official roof of the band ($ 1,526).
This discrepancy reflects the voltage between the official strategy of exchange stabilization and the expectations of investors, who see in the Bonaerenses elections a “key risk event”according to JP Morgan. The American bank stressed that electoral uncertainty, amplified by corruption complaints such as the audios scandal that involved Diego Spagnuoloformer head of Andis, and possible reversals of fiscal vetoes, has triggered volatility: The country risk spans rose 140 basic points, and LECAPS yields climbed 49%to more than 60%, stabilizing in 50%.
The government, meanwhile, is confident that The pre -election “noise”, which according to Caputo dominates financial decisions, will dissipate after Sunday’s scrutinyfavoring the ruling and clarifying the financial landscape on Monday, September 8. Quirno projected optimism: “There is no way to turn us away. There will be volatility, these trout operations will generate, but we have the conviction and macroeconomic foundations for the program to work.” The official stressed that the fiscal surplus finances the interventions, without touching reserves of the BCRA or FMI funds, and that the economic program, which reduced inflation and took 12 million people from poverty, “is increasingly difficult to destabilize.”
CITI and JP Morgan alert
However, the Investment banks warn risks. He Citi Consider that an adjusted opposition victory (1-2 points) is the base scenario, which could benefit the October national elections, but A broader triumph could anticipate a more competitive result and press the fiscal anchor.
JP Morganon the other hand, recommends fixed income strategies and “Carry Trade” in pesos, taking advantage of attractive rates, but warns about the low summer liquidity that could amplify movements in the market. In the futures market, The dollar offer reached US $ 6,000 million at the end of August, evidencing a strong official commitment to contain devaluation expectations.
The treasure, with estimated reservations at US $ 1,700 millionface a challenge: at this pace of intervention, its “ammunition” could be exhausted in less than 8 wheels, according to market estimates. Although seasonal dollarization due to salary liquidation could relieve pressure, the sustainability of the strategy depends on the electoral results and the ability of the government to maintain investor confidence. Quirno insisted that the economic program is armored: “We have prepared a scheme with solid foundations. Uncertainty is manifested in inflation and dollar, but these operations have less and less effect.”
In fact, the “Quirno roof” of $ 1,362 It is presented as a containment dike in front of the electoral storm, but The market cautiously awaits Sunday’s results. While the government Bet on an official triumph to calm the watersinvestors adjust positions, attentive to a scenario where politics and finance will remain intertwined until October.
Source: Ambito
