After the symposium of Jackson Holethe United States Federal Reserve (Fed) He left the door open to a cut in interest rates, product of the deterioration of the labor market observed in July. In August, the trend seems to have deepenedaccording to the latest labor indicators of USA. In the absence of official employment data, which will be published this Friday, Wall Street A decrease in the rate in the middle of the month.
This Wednesday, the survey of Job offers and labor rotation (Jolts) that publishes the Labor Statistics Department (BLS) July. There, it was known that employment vacancies were 7,181,000 thousand in July, a decrease of 176,000 against the June 7,357,000, data that was also reviewed down from 7,437,000. To this is added that the July data was below the 7,380,000 expected.
From Personal Investor Portfolio (PPI) they highlighted “that When vacancies fall, increase the risk that the unemployment rate will rise later“. Complementaryly, the Outlier consultancy stressed that”The job offers in the US fell to their minimum in 10 months during July and that, for the first time from the pandemic, There were more unemployed than available positions“
They also stressed that “the layoffs remained relatively low and there were also fewer workers than changing work, which completes the panorama of a labor market that has been cooling.” The resignation rate remained at 2%while the dismissal was reviewed upwards from 1% to 1.1%, a data that was repeated in July.
At the sector level, from RBC Wealth Managment They stressed that “The decrease in vacancies was especially pronounced in the health sector”. And they added that “although vacancies in this sector have been a main engine of labor growth this year, In July vacancies in this sector fell to their lowest level since 2021“
The first August data
This Thursday the employment report made by ADP Research was known. There, it was estimated that Private companies created only 54,000 jobs during Augustwell below the 106,000 generated in July and below the expectations of 69,000. For Schwab’s fixed -income strategist, Kathy Jones, “The report should consolidate the expectations of a type cut at the end of this month and increase the probability of another cut this year. “
In addition, the Challenger report on jobs cuts during the last month was also known. Totalized 85,979 layoffs during August, maximum of three months. It is an increase in the cuts of 13% year -on -year and 39% against last month. It’s about The greatest amount of job cuts in that month since 2020a situation that was also observed in the July report.
“After the impact of Doge (Government efficiency department) In the federal government, employers cite economic and market factors as the cause of dismissals. We have also observed a sudden increase in cuts due to the closure of operations or stores, already bankruptcy this year compared to last year, “said Challenger analysts.
In addition, The new unemployment requests and their renewal requests were also publishedcorresponding last week. The renovations totaled 1,940,000, less than expected and slightly below the previous week. For its part, The new requests were 237,000, above the previous month and estimated by the market.
The indications of a cut
In Outlier they stressed that “Several Fed officials fed the expectation of a feature of fees at the next meeting”. This Wednesday, the governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, and one of Donald Trump’s candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as president in 2026, said the Central Bank should lower the fees at its next meeting.
For his part, the president of the Fed of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, He said that “monetary policy is marginally restrictive” and argued that “the labor market is slowing enough to allow a certain flexibility of monetary policy, probably of the order of 25 basic points”, for the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, the head of the Fed of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said there is room for a rates low path over the next two years.
In parallel, the market is considered that at the meeting on Wednesday, September 17, the monetary authority changed its position. According to the Fed Watch that measures CME Group, The expectations among investors to reduce the types at 0.25 points is 97%.
Source: Ambito
