Vehicle imports from the main commercial partner jumped 70% annually in August. In parallel, export dynamics are concerned.
The accumulated bilateral trade deficit with Brazil so far from 2025 amounted to $ 4,120 million. The deepening of this negative balance was fundamentally explained by the growing “red” of the automotive sector, within the framework of a greater adoption of Chinese cars in the neighboring country.
According to official data from the Ministry of Economy of our main commercial partner, In August the bilateral exchange showed a deficit of US $ 614 millionthe second worst data of the year. It is worth remembering that in the same month of 2024 the negative result was only US $14 million, while the accumulated of the January-August period of that year showed a surplus of US $ 126 million.
The dynamics of Automotive industrywhich represents most of the trade between the two countries, was key when explaining the deterioration of the balance. In this area, imports glued an annual leap of 70% in August, while exports of the main product that Argentina sells, vehicles for merchandise transport, fell more than 24%.
The growth of imports responds to both commercial opening and the improvement in economic activity with respect to 2024. However, the situation of exports concerns, in a context in which the participation of electric cars and Chinese imports gain ground in Brazil.
They foresee a commercial deficit with Brazil of more than US $ 6,000 million in 2025
In general terms, Argentine imports from the bordering country grew 38.9% year -on -year. In the accumulated of the year, 49.5% jumped compared to the same section of 2024, which puts it as the period of eight months with the highest growth in 15 yearsexcluding post-pandemic, as highlighted from the consultant Abeceb
For its part, Argentine exports to the main economy of the region fell 11.8% Interranual in August and 1.6% in the accumulated of 2025.
“We do not expect a reversal of the deficit dynamics of the Argentine commercial balance with Brazil in the coming months, which would totalize between US $ 6,000 million YU $ S6.5 billion in 2025. It is estimated that the import growth rate remains high, but it is moderated as the closing of the year is approaching and import values are compared with a base less affected by the 2024 stabilizing shock, while exports would grow at a mild rhythm and affected by the idiosyncrasy of the main sectors, “said Abeceb.
On the Brazilian side, the question is to see what effect weighs the most; if certain cooling in the economy (which Argentine exports presses down) or the depreciation of the real (which generates the opposite effect). On the Argentine side, the Fall in economic activity in recent months (which would run around the year) It could stop import growth.
Source: Ambito
