In the face of the provincial elections this Sunday and the legislative of October, the economy returns to occupy the center of the scene. It arrives with the lower inflation since 2017, An achievement that Javier Milei seeks to capitalize on the framework of the national campaign. However, in parallel, the exchange rate was overheated in the last two months and forced the government to intervene in the market, suspending the fiance “free” dollar flotation.
Another key variable for the real economy of Argentines are wagesthat They are still beaten and function as an anchor to contain the CPI, along with an exchange rate, now “intervened.” To that is added import opening, which It expands the supply in a market where domestic demand remains weakened.
“The search for disinflation is not unusual in pre -electoral months, although this time it highlights the fragility of exchange control and the cost of prioritizing price stability on the real economy”stand out from CP-Consultant. In this regard, they highlight not only the difference with the election of 2023, but also with that of 2017 under the administration of Mauricio Macri, which by economic model could be considered more comparable.
When the Macri government faced the legislative elections, Argentina It had lower inflation, a more stable exchange rate and higher consumer confidence. However, the starting point or the “inheritance” that his administration received was different from that found by the libertarian in 2023. Milei, for his part, faces a more challenging environment with greater accumulated inflation, but in frank decrease, a higher country risk and a lower index of trust in the previous elections.
Economy in the previous elections
Economic activity shows a rise from 6.4% to June 2025 (EMAE of INDEC), although that rebound looks something misleading: it responds, to a large extent, to a very low comparison base after the strong recess Monetary tourniquet applied by the economic team. “The messy departure from the Lefis scheme It started two months of extreme volatility and very high ratesduplicating, for example, the cost of advances to companies and passes from the Central Bank, “they mentioned from Empiria.
For that reason, they believe it is “Difficult that the situation relates before the end of October, given the natural demand for exchange coverage“In addition, they considered that” the very real real rates of interest They presume a new contraction of the activity in the third quarter of the year“
For its part, the economic activity of macrismo was 3.9% and closed that 2017, after the elections, with a positive variation of 2.8%, according to official data. At that time, he stood out as The highest since 2011.
“The photo is not important, but the full movie”emphasizes Federico Zirulnik of the Scalabrini Ortiz Studies Centerin dialogue with Scope. In that line, it emphasizes that many of these indicators in recent times deteriorated, except inflation, which came with a high inertia and, despite the slight monthly rebound in recent months, the trend is down.
On the financial level, the Macri government traveled the electoral year with a relative “stability” in the dollar, interest rates and international reserves. Instead, The current management faces a marked deterioration in those same indicators. “While the initial situation is different; Milei already turned to the IMF and the macrismo did it after the elections”Zirulnik stands out. Although, the level of debt that it received La Libertad advances is higher than that of Let’s change.
The country risk exceeded last Thursday the key barrier of the 900 basic pointsaccording to the measurement of JP Morgan. It is an indicator that the libertarian administration continues with attention in its objective of returning to the international debt market. In contrast, During the Macri government this index was around 350 points.
“If we see stocks, net reserves are significantly lower, although The government has the IMF funds to deal with a run if necessary; The debt is at much higher levels, both internally and externally – although with the key difference that is mainly concentrated in organizations and residents – already difference from 2017, the Access to markets continues forbiddenwith a more than double country risk and a rather more volatile rate, “the economist analyzes Rocío Bisang of echogue.
Public accounts
During the administration we change there was a 4% deficitin Milei there is a balance in the accounts with a minimum 0.3% surpluswhich is not usual and the economic team celebrates and exhibits before its adversaries. “The current fiscal result is significantly higher than that of the Macri government, this being a variable with superior specific weight in terms of economic structure and solidity,” says the economist Mauro Trellini.
“I think that beyond similarities, the situation is structurally different. In particular, as regards the flows, unlike the Macri government, Lla arrives at the elections with Primary surplus and – to the exception of the last month and without considering the payment of unregistered interests – the fiscal It is also showing good performance. On the other hand, exports projected for the year (vs. 2017) are also higher and the current account deficit is lower, “Bisang observes.
Unemployment CABA.jpg
As CP-Consultants, salaries and social transfers stand out, are very deteriorated to the mid-term election, since the Use of the salary anchor implied a real 5.5% drop in purchasing power in the assets registered during the current management. The worst part was taken by public salaries, which sank 14.3% real since November 2023. “The tax adjustment of 2024 consolidated low levels in public wages, retirements and social programs”, which “They configure an atypical scenario for income in an electoral year”.
In the Macri era, wages began 2016 on decline, but managed to recover during 2017 from the hand of improvement in economic activity. To this were added increases in social benefits and retirement, along with a greater volume of credits at a subsidized rate granted by ANSES. It was a strategy aimed at underpinning the real economy, an approach that today seems to be absent.
The search to improve the economy was given through credit, which expanded strongly to be an electoral year, even more than in 2017, they stand out from CP-Consultora. However, the negative effects of rates volatility and the government’s monetary squeeze are already visible. The credit of families and companies show signs of exhaustion, with “a blackberry that reaches historical maximums, even before the rate of rates,” they said.
Source: Ambito
