The deepest stood since the end of 2021: Trump’s tariffs let exports break into the USA

The US government’s aggressive customs policy is increasingly becoming a burden on exporting Germany. In July, the exports “Made in Germany” to the United States have fallen to the deepest status since December 2021, as the Federal Statistical Office reports.

“The fourth decline in a row with our most important trading partner shows how much US trade policy our exporters hurts,” the President of the Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade (BGA), Dirk Jandura. “We have to be able to open up new markets and further diversify our sales channels. Otherwise we will continue to lose ground in global competition.”

Bad mood in the export economy

The mood also clouds, as the IFO Institute found in its latest monthly survey: “Disillusionment spreads in the export industry,” commented the head of IFO surveys, Klaus Wohlrabe, published at the end of August. “A dial of 15 percent of the United States is less than feared, but will nevertheless weaken the dynamics of export.”

Most imports from the European Union to the USA have been in volunteers of 15 percent since August 7. The tariffs for steel and aluminum had screwed up to 50 percent up to 50 percent in early June.

Shimmer of hope industrial production

A little hope gives economists that German industrial production mainly started into the third quarter because of an increase in mechanical engineering and at the same time the decline in June was significantly lower than initially calculated. “The growth of industrial production gives hope that industry will once again contribute positively to growth in the third quarter,” writes Thomas Gitzel, chief economist of VP Bank.

However, production is still more than ten percent below the level of the years before Corona pandemic and the weak July figures for receipt of the order cloud the prospects for further development.

US tariffs do not only burden Germany

Most German exports also went to the United States in July, as can be seen from the official figures. However, with a value of 11.1 billion euros, exports to the United States were 7.9 percent lower than in June 2025 and 14.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

The trade dispute also troubles China: China’s exports to the United States collapsed by around 33 percent in August, as the customs administration announced in Beijing. An end to the trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world is not in sight.

For Germany’s exporters, it was also worse in the business with China and the United Kingdom in July. According to Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen, the fact that deliveries to the euro partner countries increased by 2.5 percent to a volume of 52 billion euros is a glimmer of hope that “exports will probably not brake the economy as much as some fear of some”.

Mixed July balance for “made in Germany”

Overall, according to the preliminary results of the Wiesbaden statisticians, in July, German production worth 130.2 billion euros were delivered abroad. That was 0.6 percent less than in June 2025. Compared to the same month last year, there was an increase of 1.4 percent.

Aufwind in industry?

The latest production data ensures a ray of hope: From June to July of the current year, production in the company of the processing trade in Germany unexpectedly increased by 1.3 percent. This is also the first increase in production since March. The Federal Statistical Office also revised its data for June: According to this, only 0.1 percent less was produced compared to the previous month. Based on preliminary data, the statisticians calculated a minus of 1.9 percent for June.

This latest data from industry made hope for at least a cyclical recovery, writes ING chief host Carsten Brzeski. “With a view to the future, there is still a little chance of a surprising recovery in German industry. The government’s measures to support domestic investments from faster depreciation only came into force at the end of July.”