The electoral defeat in Buenos Aires It was clearly read as a negative result for the government and the path of its economic policy. And while Javier Milei He promised to make one “deep self -criticism”he ratified the course of his administration that, in part, led him to Electoral reverse in the province of Buenos Aires. Beyond that the decrease in inflation is highlighted – after it has exceeded 200% in 2023-; The cooling of the economy in recent months, with the fall of consumption and wages, showed that day to day has a strong incidence in the polls.
La Libertad advances (lla) He obtained 49.27% In 2023 in the province, losing for just 1.46% in front of the Peronismwho took out 50.73% of the votes in the ballot. However, far from consolidating that amount of votes, he now lost by 33.71% vs. 47.28%, And in sections like the third one fell for more than 20 points (Lla 28.43% vs. 53.97% Patria Force).
“The economy of the Province of Buenos Aires came badly to the elections: almost 2% fell – a little less – if we add July and August, according to PBA pulse. Geographically there are different issues of the economy: in Nation in 2024 it was sustained thanks to mines and quarries, which weighs almost 8 points nationwide, although in PBA it only affects 0.2%,” he analyzed Matías RajnermanPresident of Province Bankin dialogue with Scope.
In that line, the sociologist Daniel Schteingart He added that in Buenos Aires the productive profile is more industrial, which was precisely one of the most hit sectors by the policy of “Import opening” already “exchange appreciation”. “Buenos Aires is an agricultural province, but it has not gone particularly very well in these years,” he said. And Rajnerman added that “it arrived a little less worse.”
By recognizing defeat, the chief of cabinet, Guillermo Francos, admitted: “We can say that the economy in the macro is growing, but that is not reaching people and it is important that they arrive, because if people do not look distrustful those economic achievements.”
Loss of productive fabric
So far from Javier Milei’s government closed 15,564 productive units until May of this year, according to data from the Argentina Grande Institute (IAG). The province with the greatest loss of companies was Buenos Aires with 4,293, followed by Cordova with a decline 2,290 and CABA with 2,090.
In this way, the absolute variation at the country level shows 98,800 jobs lost since it governs La Libertad advancesaccording to him IAGalthough from these jobs one third corresponds to the province of Buenos Aires, that is, 33,156 jobs were destroyed.
“Buenos Aires SMEs are between the sword and the wall, they are not alien to the crisis of the sector nationwide. They face a strong fall in domestic consumption that hits sectors such as textiles, food, construction and services. Despite some important fiscal relief and soft loans launched by the Government of the Province, National political-economic instability that crosses the country pushes many entrepreneurs to reduce their activity, suspend personnel or directly lower their blinds”He added Camilo Alberto KahalePresident of the Economic Federation of the Province of Buenos Aires (FEBA).
“This government is obsessive of balances to lower inflation, but the basis of its model is the adjustment not the balance. They want to generate ‘carry’ and need to compromise less dollars to the real economy so that the maneuver is credible. The balance with greater expense (more taxes for example) does not serve them. Then, this works based on adjustments,” he launched Hernán Herrera, of IAG.
Coimas scandal
It was not only the real economy that explained the coup at the polls. He Las Cimas scandal at the National Disability Agency (Andis) He also contributed his own to Buenos Aires discontent. In that sense, Herrera recalled that the Emergency Law in Disability It only had a cost of 0.3% of GDP, but the government decided to squander it: “These things in society feel.”
For Juan Manuel Telecheathe political factor was the one that most affected, even more than the economy. “The cases of Karina Milei coimas, how she decided the assembly for the elections and in particular in the province of Buenos Aires“He catapulted.
“In recent weeks, what we saw was a strong rise in rates that, although people do not hit directly, it works as a thermometer of the economic situation and in particular of what happens with companies,” he examined.
Salaries and social games
Salaries are in a low threshold at historical levels. From the government of Javier Milei fell 5.5% real of purchasing power in those registered, while public suffered an even greater loss, 14.3% against November 2023.
“The tax adjustment of 2024 consolidated low levels in public wages, retirements and social programs”, which “They configure an atypical scenario for income in an electoral year”they stood out from CP-Consultants. As well as the salary variable, the adjustment to social programs and retirementwhich consolidated in a very low threshold.
“Together with the beneficiaries of social programs and public salaries, retirement registered a very large fall in 2024. The pension assets have been having a long -term deterioration product of high inflation. From the change of the mobility formula, the government consolidated the low levels of retirement, important axis of the tax adjustment (it explains about 30% of the adjustment of the expense),” they highlighted from the consultant.
The bonus, which is frozen since 2023, also functioned as a adjustment variable. “Comparing the months of June of each year, retirements in 2025 are 11% lower than those of 2021, 26% to those of 2017 and 28% to those of 2013. In the average retirement, the fall is 26%, 41% and 44%, respectively”they complete.
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Despite being substantially different from those of the previous election of 2013 and 2021, Minimum retirement grew. “In 2017 they presented a fall, but they were at higher levels and were compensated by the great magnitude policy by the ANSES,” the report added.
For their part, social programs also did not have a real improvement. Despite the increase in universal child allocation in 2024, The adjustment in the rest of the benefits is so large that it pushes the income down 2025as explained by CP-Consultants.
“The micro imports”Herrera said and added that “the Price recomposition relative in service rates, together with the policy of stepping in parity It was a combo that in GBA hurt a lot, in a macro that is based on the adjustment. “
Source: Ambito
