Industry: Sectors are added to claims by falling in production
Such projection does not condition with reality, on the contrary, In industrial nuclei such as the Argentine Industrial Union they say that “nervousness increases”seen in the meetings of the Board of Directors of the Agency: “The climate of the meetings became more spicy in recent months, sectors that did not claim, now they do”, Alert to this medium.
The explanation is simple: consumption does not rebound continuously and that has an impact on the companies of the companies. “First you worry, then adjustás and, finally, you start getting nervous”, Graph another industrial.
The panorama is complex in branches as dress either footwearand aggravates in other items, such as metallurgy either furniture. A Marplatense entrepreneur brings an extreme example, from a recognized Sweaters brand that claims to produce lower quality garments, “Just to cover costs”
Consumption recovers against 2024, but handles historically low levels
Another sector that feels the retraction of the economy is that of mass consumption. According to data from the Coordinator of food products industries (COPAL) Shared with this medium, in the First semester of 2025 Retail and drink retail sales They grew +4.1% year -on -yearalthough they are still below most of the previous years (they only exceed 2019).
In the disaggregated, food shows a more consistent recovery: +2.2% year-on-year and +4.9% accumulated January-June. In drinkson the other hand, weakness predominates: -4.1% year -on -year and stagnation compared to 2024. The contrast is also notorious in supplier testimonies. For example, A bottled water company recognizes that its sales fell 25% in one year.
Model factories on alert for the arrival of imported products
As aggravating, the import opening accelerate the conversion of the productive framework And more and more suppliers They remain in the middle of the chainincreasing the possibility of his disappearance.
The arrival of imported products It is a reason for alert in most industrial sectoralthough -paradojically- from the government they ensure that the future of the country must be drawn up by business development.
A concrete example: scope participated in a lunch in a factory in Admiral Brownwhere an official of the industry and commerce area was. There, he said that the future of Argentina was disputed between “the past” and “factories like the one that touches me to visit”Minutes later, this newspaper consulted for the current situation of the brand: Fall in sales, less exports, product of the exchange rate and high costsConcern about the series of Chinese imports, limiting the added value to the collection products.
The deterioration of the industrial framework does not seem to be a reason for a reco for the government in electoral times. A member of a representative entity of the PBA business sector tells that “an emissary” of the ruling party to establish “arrived”A relationship bridge, and campaign financing“.” I know when conversation is silver. We are not to finance anyone, except now”, Ironiza in the conversation.
An economy that loses envión
For Haroldo Montaguchief economist of the consultant Vectorthe key is that “There is a drop in expectations that are also reflected in the activity”As explained, businessmen make decisions based on demand and today that engine is off.
“The main driver of entrepreneurs are growth expectations. There are no expectations, Interest rates, exchange and financial volatility They end up impacting their decisions, ”he says in dialogue with this medium.
Montagu warns that the growth observed in the first half of 2025, With an average annual 6.2%he had a lot of rebound in front of the low comparison base of the first semester of 2024 -when the initial impact of the policies of the government of Mileii was felt stronger. “That 6% is not genuine growth, it is rebound”He stressed.
Looking ahead to the second semester, the economist projects a much poorer scenario: rates close to 3% per year, even with negative intermensual records. Thus, the year could close with a growth around 4-4.5%, Below the IMF and ECLAC projectionswhich anticipated 5%.
In that sense, Montagu warned that this year could end up showing a lower growth than the “statistical drag” of 4.4% inherited from 2024. “If you grow less than the drag, at some point decreases, because you ate part of that envy”, He explained.
Martín PoloEconomist of Chief of Strategy in Cohenrecently paid this idea. In his X account, he shared: “With the fall of the industry (2.3% m/m) and the construction (1.8% m/m) in July, it is very likely that the EMAE will come along that line. With this the economy would accumulate 6 months of fall, What technically entered recession”
The last report of Vector He also warns of the Fiscal Front. In August, Collection fell -2.6% real, the worst result for that month in the last nine yearseven below 2020 in full pandemic. Until now, the collection had been showing real improvements month by month (except in May), but the recoil of the activity ended up hitting the tax base.
The consultant also lights alerts on the financial side: Checks rejected due to lack of funds are already approaching the critical levels of the Government of Mauricio Macriwhile the monetary squeeze via bank lace fired the advances rates in current account and check discount. The probable consequence: more tensions in the payment chain.
Montagu concluded with a political diagnosis: “Probably the result of mid -term elections imply The need for an almost complete reset of the economic program”
Labor reform, key in the legislative agenda that the government will seek to impose if it succeeds in October
Although the ruling party has suffered a significant electoral setback, with a difference of more than 13 points in the province of Buenos Aires, the May Council does not lose hope that freedom progresses to achieve a triumph in the margin After the October elections And put an element of great priority on your agenda: The labor reform.
A member of the consultative collegiate body created in June, which The objective is to deepen the spirit of decree 70/2023 And he assures that he has the endorsement of the union leg to discuss it. This could only be treated in case of sustaining political support in Congress: great entrepreneurs see with expectation a modernization of labor rules, but also warn that the process can open A new focus of social conflict.
Source: Ambito
