The Ieral states that before an increase in unforeseen spending by the Government it still has space for more adjustment in the budget. Salaries, discretionary transfers and sight subsidies.
In what remains of the year, The government must apply a 14% cut in non -automatic spending items to compensate for the highest fiscal cost involved in the Disability Emergency Law, the distribution of National Treasury Contributions Funds (ATN) and the distribution of fuel tax. This is indicated by a report from the Institute of Economic Research for the Argentine and Latin American Reality (IERAL), which warns that, Without that additional adjustment, the balance of public accounts will be under pressure and, therefore, the fiscal goal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be breached.
The report by those responsible for the Fiscal Section of the Ieral, Marcelo Capello and Federico Beichproposes a projection regarding the base scenario for this year. The same already provided for an adjustment of 12%, due to the increase generated by inflation in the budget items that adjusts by CPI.
“Given the expected inflation for last five months of the year, a rise in automatic expenditure of 15% real annual in that period is projected, so that to fulfill the commitment to the IMF of a primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP in 2025, non -automatic spending It should have a real annual 12% drop between August and December 2025, RSpecto of the same period last year, ”estimates the report.
The work indicates that “taking into account the new law on disability, and if the bills on ATN and fuel tax are approved, with A cost of about 0.2% of GDP in the remainder of 2025, to achieve the objective of a primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP, non -automatic erogations should be further cut, around 14% real annual between August and December (instead of 12% with the base stage) ”.
Expenditure-2024-2025
That is, the government would have What to make an adjustment 2 points in the expense over what was planned.
Ieral’s work indicates, on the other hand, that “although primary expenditure exhibits an annual real rise of 2.4% in the first seven months of 2025, it is still 29% lower than the same period of 2023”.
Personnel spending, says the survey “Also in 2025 it shows a reduction (-6%), where it impacts the reduction of the plant, In addition to salary evolution, so that the personnel departure accumulates a 24% adjustment compared to 2023 ”.
“On the other hand, others Operating expenses rise 28% annual real so far from 2025, so that the adjustment with respect to 2023 results from 18%, ”says the study.
Anyway, the Ieral indicates that “Retirement spending increases a real annual annual in January – July 2025, But it still results 10% lower than what is missed in 2023 ”.
“The expense in AUH rises 33% so far from 2025 and accumulates an increase of 55% real annual versus the same period of 2023 ”, Details the report.
On the other hand, subsidies to The energy fell 56% in the first seven months of the year and 7% compared to 2023, while transfers to public companies fall 45% compared to 2024 and 64% in relation to 2023.
Discretionary transfers to the provinces, on the other hand, This year they are basically climbing because in 2024 there was almost no.
Source: Ambito
