The Wholesale inflation in USA During August, it surprised favorably, with an increase of 2.6% at the year -on -year level and a deflation of 0.1% in the monthly comparison. Two figures well below the consensus of the experts. In that way, the market is not only It takes for granted that the Federal Reserve (FED) will reduce the interest rate next week, but Wait for you to continue with new cuts in the remainder of 2025.
The data of Producer Price Index (IPP) that published the Labor Statistics Department (BLSfor its acronym in English) also found a slowdown in core inflation, which fell 0.1% against July, while in the measurement against August 2024 the increase was 2.8%.
In addition, the IPP It was positive because he exhibited a downward correction of July measurementswhich had sown uncertainty in the market for the possible inflationary impact that the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump As of August. This Thursday will have the complete panorama with the publication of the retail inflation.
As soon as the data, the president of the United States, Donald Trumpit soon echoes: “Without inflation !!! You have to lower the rate, and a lot!already! Powell is a total disaster, he has no idea. ”
The certainty of a cut, the uncertainty of how much
“The report is positive and gives the Fed green light to cut the rate next week“He said Cooper HowardDirector of Fixed Income Strategy of the Financial Research Schwab Center.
Similarly, the INVIU Country Manager, Diego Martínez Burzacoexplained to Scope That this data “what it does is stimulate an interest rate cut from September by the Federal Reserve.” And he assured that “now the discussion is not whether or not there will be cuts, but the magnitude of that cut, if it is going to be a fourth percentage point or half a percentage point.”
In Personal Investor Portfolio (PPI) They explained that the possibility of a 50 -point cut “always brings a story: a crisis that is coming, an error of ‘timing’ of the organism or even a political controversy, as happened in 2024”.
Anyway, they acknowledged that “For now it is still a distant scenario.” And they argued: “The labor market shows signals of deterioration, but inflation remains above the ‘target’ and does not convince being on the right path.”
And they added that “the market already discounts two casualties for the remainder of the year And assign one probability of 77% to the FED cut in all the meetings that remain in 2025: September, October and December.
For the meeting of the monetary authority of USA Agree for September 17, the probability of a 25 basic points cut in the rate is 88%, with a 12% probability of a cut of 50 basic points, according to the Fedwatch of Cme. Facing the meeting of October 29, The expectations that there is another 25-point cut, for the range between 3.75%-4.00%, are 72.2%.
Concern for the labor market
“There is also a reality that the statistics of creating new jobs yesterday was reviewed very strongly since March To date, with less employment creation the expected one, “Burzaco warned. The BLS reviewed the measurement of new jobs for the period between April 2024 and March 2025.
“While the median analysts relieved by Bloomberg expected the adjustment to be A decrease of approximately 700,000 positions, the entity cut the data at 911,000“They explained from PPI.
Faced with this, different Trump administration officials pointed against the BLS and the integrity of their data. “President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the Office of Labor Statistics (BLS) is broken, “said the press secretary of the White House, Karoline Leavitt.
This attack occurs within the setback Trump suffered after trying to say goodbye to the governor of the Fed, Lisa Cook, and The growing doubts that exist on Wall Street about the independence of the North American Central Bank of the Executive Power now in the hands of the Republican president.
Source: Ambito
