The economy of Latin America faces a period of stagnationwith Mexico and Brazil at the head of this deceleration. The fall in remittances, consumption cooling and low raw material prices will mark the course of regional markets By 2026.
Despite what Mexico managed to successfully overcome American protectionismconsumer confidence descended since the late 2024, after the elections won by Donald Trump. The country prepares for T-MEC reviewscheduled for 2026, and its economy remains Highly dependent on the political and economic cycle of the United States.
Brazil maintains a modest but constant growthdriven by consumption and a public spending greater than expected. However, Real’s recovery has been achieved to High cost in credit and investmentand currently face a credit deceleration similar to that observed in Mexico.
According to a report from SOLUNIONwith data from Allianz Trade, Mexico and Brazil will lead regional economic stagnationwhile other Latin American countries have more varied performances. Volatility in commercial flows and global uncertainty are factors that aggravate this panorama.
How will the situation in Argentina and other Latin countries
The solunion report also analyzes the situation of other countries in the region, highlighting its challenges and potential recovery signals against economic stagnation:
Argentina
According to the report of SOLUNION, Argentina could partially compensate for the slowdown in the regionshowing signs of recovery despite persistent economic challenges.
The economy would be slowly leaving the recession, and it is projected that the Inflation Ronde 24% at the end of the year. The report indicates that, although some indicators reflect improvements in consumption and productive activity, recovery would be gradual and could be affected by market volatility and the evolution of international prices.
Chili
The report indicates that Chile registered a rebound in consumption in 2024driven by the revaluation of copper and the relative macroeconomic stability. According to solunionthese factors would allow the country to better face regional deceleration, although its growth would remain moderate.
Colombia
Solunion points out that Colombia faces high fiscal risktogether with political uncertainty and security problems. Fixed investment remains reduced and is not compensated with greater growth driven by consumption, which leaves the most vulnerable country against regional deceleration.
Peru
According to the report, Peru holds macroeconomic stabilitysupported by their exports and reduced levels of unemployment and inflation. However, it is pointed out that internal consumption is weak and mining production has fallen due to emergencies and strikes in large iron and gold operations.
Ecuador
Ecuador shows recovery signsespecially in the primary sector, with a highlight in cocoa production. Even so, the per capita growth is still lower than that of its neighborsindicating that the Ecuadorian economy still faces important challenges.
In parallel, analysts warn that Interest rates do not descend on time and the US Federal Reserve does not take up cutsthe most dollarized economies, such as Mexico and Chile, could see canceled its additional impulse to growth due to the effect of currencies on prices.
Source: Ambito
