The minister holds the scheme of exchange bands. If necessary, you will use reservations. He will travel to the US to negotiate greater support.
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, He will travel to Washington to meet with the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgievaand other authorities. The goal is review the current agreement and consolidate strategies To, as they held at the Palacio de Finance, “guarantee macroeconomic stability.” The trip will take place after the recent electoral defeat of the ruling party in the province of Buenos Aires, although President Javier Milei has received support from the IMF to support his economic program.
It transpired that conversations with the IMF will focus on the Informal review of the agreed goalsespecially those related to the reserves of the Central Bank. The data is that the Government has obtained the authorization – also informal – of the IMF to, if necessary, intervene with the reserves of the BCRA In the exchange market to defend the ceiling of the exchange band, today at $ 1,470. However, although the IMF has shown understanding of this strategy, this would not exempt Argentina from the possibility of requesting a new “forgiveness” (Waiver) for not complying with the accumulation goals of reserves for the first quarter of 2026. Caputo must balance the exchange stability with international commitments in a high pressure context.
The fate of the dollar and the support of Washington
The visit to Washington is contemplated for a few weeks and will seek to coincide with the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bankwhich will take place Ten days before the October elections. In conversations, Minister Luis Caputo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to the defense of the exchange band ceiling, a position backed by Milei, who, after dialogue with Georgieva, said he will not deviate from his economic plan.
As part of this commitment, Milei announced that he will present the 2026 budget next Monday in Nacional Cadenain which the structural reforms agreed with the IMF will highlight. The increase in country risk above 1,100 basic points It has generated uncertainty in the markets, which, as they maintain in the Treasury, reinforces the need for measures to contain exchange volatility.
The Casa Rosada understands that the political context complicates the panorama. The opposition triumph has generated doubts about the continuity of the economic plan, but the endorsement of the IMF occurred in recent hours strengthens the position of the government. Georgieva highlighted the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline And structural reforms, while Minister Caputo seeks to avoid abrupt devaluation that could shoot inflation.
IMF, rates and lace mon amour
Another detail that deserves mention is that, according to sources close to the IMF interlocutors, the recent Caputo measures -mayers bank lace requirements and an increase in interest rates-, They were well received by the IMF. In addition, and also in line with the IMF’s proposals, the Government has proposed a period of six weeks so that the investors are tempted with high interest ratesa strategy aimed at capturing liquidity and stabilizing the market. In the Treasury they understand that the presentation of the 2026 budget will be key to demonstrate the commitment to economic stability, although the use of reserves to stabilize the exchange rate raises challenges to the expiration matters of close debt.
In the exchange market, The dollar – in the area of $ 1,430 – showed a relative pause after recent treasure interventionswhich used its own funds – of which there is still just over US $ 1,100 million – to complement the actions of the Central Bank in the containment of the exchange rate. This strategy seeks Relieve pressure on BCRA reservesallowing, according to the government, a “sustainable” management of the defense of the exchange ceiling. However, The electoral uncertainty and the expectations of a possible inflationary escalation keep investors in alert.
The Annual IMF and World Bank meeting in October will be a critical moment, which will amplify the relevance of negotiations. Caputo’s ability to project trust, together with the presentation of the 2026 budget and the six -week strategy to take advantage of high rates, will be essential to reassure markets and align expectations with the demands of the IMF in a politically delicate context.
The defense of the exchange ceiling, backed by the IMF’s permission to use reservations and treasure interventions, intends Prevent an escalation of the dollar that could aggravate inflation and social discomfort before elections. In the search for economy, the budget announcement 2026 reinforces this message, by projecting a firm commitment to “fiscal discipline and structural reforms.”
Source: Ambito
