The risk of an extended recession is deepened. In the industry they say that the government’s plan “collapsed”, supermarkets speak of “the peace of cemeteries” and investments are stopped even in Vaca Muerta.
“No one sells anything”; That is the conclusion that approached one of the most important industrialists in the country With respect to the temperature of the activity. The hard blow that the Government of Javier Milei received in the Buenos Aires elections further complicates the scenario of the real economy. More signatures enter into cessation of payments, the layoffs are multiplied and in the energy sector they already talk about a Pare in investments and resent payment chains.
The defeat for more than 13 points of freedom advances in the district with more electors in the country was not in anyone’s calculations. With the result, the market redefines its options and entrepreneurs postpone decisions in a panorama plagued with uncertaintiesboth politically and in economic and financial. For Tomás Rozemberg, CEO of Context Investments, such as the two variables that must be seen in the face of October did not have great shocks -the rate did not go up and the exchange rate moved just over 3% -, the government will hold its plan at least to the elections.
The strongest impact is on the real economy. This is the deepening of a parate that had already been perceived Since, given the risk of a jump in the exchange rate, Luis Caputo and his team decided to harden the monetary squeeze with prohibitive interest rates and the highest bank lace in at least three decades.
Paralysis in the financial sector is such that This Tuesday A bank with high territorial deployment literally granted a single personal credit among all branches in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, According to a high manager to this media. With nuances, the rest of the entities agree that the financing is almost completely frozen.
Investments are stopped and there is a risk of an extended recession
The risk of an extended recession grows. In the big chains of Supermarkets They say they travel “The peace of cemeteries”. For now there is no war with its suppliers. There were no price lists that account for the last jump of the dollar. That happens because “there is no money,” they say. There has been months that there is no rebound in the indices of mass consumption.
WhatsApp groups of the industrialists They are plagued with messages that talk about Disposses, suspensions and factor closure. The lack of financing haste these measures. “The model was broken,” synthesized a former director of the Argentine Industrial Union.
The impact of the electoral sneak came to La Joya, arrived in Vaca Muerta. In the energy sector they anticipate that “now we are going to enter a cone of shadows” and that Investments that presumed will enter a waiting. “Getting financing abroad will be very difficult with the country risk around 1,000 points,” said the president of a company.
The conclusion that the experienced man from the sector was released is that Vaca Muerta will continue to take and that “Surely we are going to lose another two years devoured by uncertainty”referring to the fact that business decisions are going to take. “In 2027, we’ll see,” he lamented.
A key test
For Emmanuel Álvarez Agismarket opinion will be known not only in the change market, but in the Treasury Debt Biddingwhich faces maturities with the private sector for $ 7.5 billion. For the PXQ economist, “the Government seems determined to travel the next seven weeks to the national election by force for sale of the band’s roof, high interest rates and, perhaps, more lace increases to ensure the finances of the treasury.”
Finally, he considered that “the rumor of a request to activate the special line for stabilization of treasure coins of the United States is evidence of this.”
Source: Ambito
