The inflation August was 1.9% and it was below 2% per fourth consecutive monthas detailed by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). During the eighth month of the year, the “Pass-Through” continued to be low after the climb of the dollar during July (+14%) and the slight August cut (-1.9%). For its part, the segment that increased the most during the period analyzed was Transportation, with a 3.6%rise.
In this way, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) It was below the market expectation, which estimated that inflation was going to accelerate to the 2.1%. Price variation accumulated 19.5% in the first eight months of the year, while the interannual slowed 33.6%. In this scenario, various analysts evaluated how the aforementioned index can evolve of a year marked by the electoral contest throughout the country.
September: The impact of dollar volatility
The volatility of the dollar and the movement of rates in pesos after the official defeat in Buenos Aires returned to question inflationary projections. While the government celebrated the data of the month of Augustseveral consultants anticipate that September could close with a price index above 2%, overcoming the pattern that had marked the Survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank.
From Eco Go they estimated that the Monthly rise would be around 2.4%, although they clarified that the calculation “is still preliminary and is subject to modifications.” The firm attributed the acceleration to the direct impact of the electoral result in the province of Buenos Aires: “The surprise defeat of the national government impacted fully on the markets, collapsing the price of Argentine assets and Tractioning the dollars up”
Along these lines, they warned that while “the news is still recent and there are no data on the impact on the prices” Eco Go analysts consider probable “a certain transfer of not quickly anchoring expectations”
On the other hand, in dialogue with this medium, The main economist of LCG, Melisa Salaagreed that the September CPI can place above 2%. In this sense, he remarked: “You have to finish seeing How the market reacts, September just starts”
“Surely there will be more pressure on prices, but not as much as in other previous corrections,” said Sala who later said: “The activity is very depressed and the discipline of imports imply A concrete brake to any margin recovery”
Inflation above 2% is one of The readings shared by the different consultants. In their latest report, from Balancia they detailed: “Economic activity, which was already showing recessive signs, It will accentuate its fall. It is inevitable. With the expectation of such marked devaluation, it is expected that there is some impact on prices, but given the weakness of the state of demand, We do not see that inflation goes far from 2% in which it is moving today”
For his part, the director of Analytica, Claudio Capraulo, also focused on The possible repercussions on the economy of the defeat in the government in Buenos Aires: “It is still early to finish understanding the impact of the electoral result on the economyamong other things, because the economic team still did not communicate changes to the new scenario. ”For the specialist, “While the ‘Pass Through’ is low, given the disagreement of expectations it can rise again.”
Finally, it should be noted that the Rem – prepared Between August 27 and 29 with the participation of 39 banks, consultants and research centers –he had projected a 1.8% inflation For September. However, one last correction applied implied a increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous measurement.
Inflation: analysts expect until the end of the year
For the following months, the variations were lower and October remained unchanged. In this way, the survey now It places the accumulated inflation of 2025 in 28.2% (0.9 pp rather than in the previous REM).
For the horizon of twelve months – until August next year -, The forecast fell slightly to 20.9% (-0.2 pp.). The official bet to decelerate the price index is maintained as the central objective of the economic policy of the government of Javier Mileialthough the measures taken in that sense, far from clearing doubts, continue to generate noise in the markets and condition the activity.
Market projections for the dollar, GDP and rates
Beyond the IPC of Indec – and with the end of the year on the near horizon – The market consensus projects that the official exchange rate will close December 2025 around $ 1,441. That parity would imply a year -on -year rise of 41.2%, that is, 3.5 percentage points more than in the PRIOR SURVEY OF THE REM, and an adjustment of almost 6% in the remainder of the year.
As for the activity, The correction was also felt: the consultants reduced the growth expectation of the GDP by 2025 from 5% to 4.4%. The adjustment reflects the effects of the “monetary squeeze” on the economy, expressed both in the Volatility of rates as in credit contraction.
Finally, the survey also anticipates A strong cut in the tamar rate of private banks for fixed wholesale deadlines. In this way, the projected level is located in 35.25% annual nominalequivalent to a monthly effective rate of 2.9%, compared to 66% in force in the present.
Source: Ambito
