The last six months showed a notorious cooling of economic activity, aggravated by the volatility of interest rates. The government seems to have taken note after the hard electoral setback in the province of Buenos Aires (PBA) and began to promote a decrease in yields in pesos, which draw down the cost of financing to the private sector. However, before the repeated “villages” of the ruling and the proximity of the national elections, the doubts that this fall has a positive impact in the short term persist.
After the change of monetary policy in July and the disarmament of the Lefis, the rates experienced a remarkable jump. As an example, for advances to companies, used to finance working capital, the annual nominal performance jumped from the 31% to him 93% between mid -July and mid -August, although it was then stabilized near the 70% in the days prior to Buenos Aires legislative.
“This occurs in the context of a blackberry that reached maximum historical records (for families), even before the rate rise (last DATA JUN-25). Credit to families had been showing symptoms of exhaustion. Company’s current account advances show an important contraction from the change of monetary policy scheme”, Warned the Centro Periphery consultant in a report.
Economic activity carries a semester in the “freezer”
Growing delinquency and credit retraction damage even more to a economy that has been suffering since March. After a partial rebound in April, private data agrees that in July the activity registered its third consecutive monthly setback (official data arrive until June), while by August the first advances were not encouraging either.
Through its brand new Pulsopba referential, which processes a large amount of public data through artificial intelligence, the province bank exhibited that The largest district economy in the country chained its sixth weekly decline in thread and that in the accumulated of August achicated 1.4%. In the same vein, cement consumption showed a monthly decrease of 0.6% nationwide and cars patents fell 3.1% according to the consulting firm Econviews.
The BCRA intervened in the short -term rates after the elections in PBA
This scenario of high rates and salary stagnated at highly low historical levels had its correlation in a bad result for freedom advances in PBA. After the coup received, during this week The Central Bank (BCRA) decided to lower the rates which sets through short -term remunerated liabilities offered on the simultaneous wheels of Byma. On Wednesday, these returns closed at 35%, when at the beginning of the week they were 45%. In turn, This impacted the rate of cion to one day that the private sector uses to obtain liquidity, which this Thursday culminated in 31%.
According to public data of the BCRA, the Tamar rate for the fixed wholesale deadlines was reduced from 65.94% to 59% so far this week, while For the advances to companies also gave about six percentage points since the end of last week, to be currently 60%. Despite this withdrawal, it is worth noting that in the last survey of market expectations (REM), participants estimated accumulated inflation only exceeding 20% for the next 12 months; Even assuming that the figure can be somewhat larger, it is clear that interest in pesos remains very positive in real terms.
Depressed economic activity: Will the loss of fees will be rapid?
On the relationship between this rate of fees and a possible rebound of the economy, the analyst of the echogue consultant, Luciano Patruccosaid a Scope that “It generates distension for the activity that had been punished but the political scene still generates a lot of noise”.” Maybe in September you have a small recovery but October will be a complicated month and it remains to see how the post-election scheme continues, ”he warned.
For its part, Agostina Monti Salíasspecialist in productive development issues, does not see an economy bouncing towards October, although with this reduction in the cost of indebtedness you can “reactivate financing for working capital and stop problems in payment chains”. Besides, Does not believe “that there are productive investments until the October election result is knownthe response of the markets and the decisions made by the government from it. ”
José Sorabillasecretary of the Foundation Protected, said in dialogue with this medium that economic activity and production depend fundamentally on wages and consumption, variables that will continue deteriorated according to their gaze. As for the rates, he said that “in any case he slows down the great damage caused by these quirky levels.”
“In most industrial sectors, work is being done with a very high idle capacity and trade is quite stopped. Under those conditions, You are hardly thinking about investingexcept for two or three related sectors that work with a different logic and an export market, but that are very limited to generate work that can trace the consumption of the domestic market, ”the referent of the textile and clothing sector deepened.
In summary, specialists agree that the reduction of rates goes in the right direction, but they are not encouraged to ensure that they reach the current casualties so that the economy reverts its negative dynamics, at least immediately.
Source: Ambito
