It is another pitch of the electoral result in the province of Buenos Aires. The City is now more difficult for a overwhelming victory of the ruling party in national legislatures, which allows it to advance labor, tax and pension reforms.
Market operators already evaluate that, after Sunday’s electoral result in the province of Buenos Aires, where the defeat of the ruling party was higher than expected, once the national elections pass The government will only have power to defend vetoes of laws in Congress, but may not promote its agenda of important reforms It still has pending.
“Let’s not fool ourselves. We have reinforced PJwith the smell of Axel 2027, a congress that will be paralyzed and a reform agenda that will be drawn”He said Martín PoloEconomist of Cohen Financial Allies.
Polo warned that “a Capital output In the case In case this is revalidated in October “ And, on the other hand, he indicated that “interest rates should tend to fall so that the exchange rate is accommodated” as long as “The disinflation process stops.”
In it most pessimistic scenario That this stock company has been contemplated That the dollar goes to the band’s roof and exceeds it. “We are going to have lower growth and fiscal deterioration, ”said Polo.
The analyst then warns that in 2026 he possibly deepens adjustment because “The government has to improve the primary surplus.” You have to go to 1.6% of GDP. “The agenda that the government has for 2026 is much more demanding than it had so far. It has to improve the primary surplus and will have to negotiate,” he explained.
The market and the numbers of the future Congress
The estimate of Cohen Financial Allies is that Peronism will be left with a block of Deputies between 95 and 105 legislators while the government will have 37 own who could add “allies” until reaching about 89.
It should be remembered that Among the reforms that are pending on the agenda are work, tax and a rethinking of the pension system. All very ambitious changes that require a lot of political support. In the case of a tax reform, which would be presented in 2026 to enter into force in 2027, it raises the reduction or elimination of taxes charged by the provinces.
But beyond that, to have a program in which exchange rate it is low, as the ruling has been raised since it came to power, the reforms that allow improving the productivity of the economy are needed.
In any case, this year, according to estimates of the Stock Exchange, Argentina’s bilateral exchange rate with the US has been improving a lot Although the dollar globally is going down. In Cohen they estimate that it improved by 30%, all in the last weeks with the rise of the exchange rate.
The Citymeanwhile, He also suspects that Luis Caputo’s team will cost to return to global debt markets Volunteer in 2026, which was another of the key legs on which the government program stopped.
Source: Ambito
