In it first quarter of 2025the Poverty -revenue -revenue- fell to 31.5% and the indigence affected the 6.9% of the Argentines, according to the projections based on the Permanent Household Survey (EPH) prepared by Cedlas and the UCA Social Debt Observatoryshowing a strong retraction against the same period of 2024. The index had shot in the first months of the government of Javier Milei After the devaluation of 54%the acceleration of inflation and the deep recession that crossed the country.
In an electoralist tone that maintained after the defeat in Buenos Aires legislative, President Milei said that “we have taken 12 million Argentines out of poverty.” However, official data shows another reality: from the beginning of their management they left poverty 6,133,637 peoplejust half of what the president maintains.
Focus on the figures of 2023, the poverty had reached the 45.2% and the indigence he 14.6% In the last quarter of the administration of Alberto Fernándezthat extrapolated to the total population represented 21,087,871 people under the line of povertyof which 6,811,569 They were at the end of this condition.
In this sense, Gonzalo Carrera, of Balances, It emphasizes that the comparison should be made with the Third quarter of 2023since it is a month with a bonus in between that the threshold of poverty goes down and would be comparable to the first quarter of 2025. At that time, the poverty It was from 38.6%that is to say that it affected 18.008,669 people. This implies that only 3,054,435 people left poverty in it Government of Milei.
However, despite the number that is under debate, as the specialist explains, LEOPOLDO TORNAROLLI of the Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)It does not imply that these people “came out of poverty forever or that they are no longer at risk.”
“They are people who normally income is barely reached, or directly does not reach them, according to the juncture. In the first semester of 2024, after the devaluation and the inflationary jump, their purchasing power deteriorated strongly and became considered poor under the measurement by income. Now, with the deceleration of inflation, they recovered part of that purchase power and ceased to be poor according to that indicator. However, their living conditions did not change substantially: they continue to live in the same place, with the same services and carry out the same works ”, He explained Turarolli.
And it is that poverty is not only an indicator that is reflected in statistics, but a reality that crosses people’s daily lives. It may seem obvious, but to talk about poverty only in numerical terms, without considering how these homes live, it is reductionist and, in the best case, superficial.
To analyze in detail poverty, it is essential to take into account the creation of jobs, which in recent years continues stagnant and even As you need Agustín Salvia of the UCA Social Debt Observatory, It is below the 2017 threshold, as long as informal employment and lower remuneration grows. “The rate of income poverty is directly tied to wages and employment, which today are stagnant, and on that side a real improvement cannot come,” he warned.
The registered salaries June 2025 are still a 5.5% Below November 2023, according to the last available data of INDEC. Although when it is segmented by private and registered, the latter are the ones that lost most purchasing power: 14.3% from the assumption of Javier Milei, while the first gave 0.6%.
In that line, Salvia did notice that there were “improvements linked to the fall of food inflation, which effectively contributes to the destitution falling. If we add to that we add social aid -like the AUH and the food card -, the reduction of extreme poverty is more genuine.”
Although in the measurement of poverty by income, the Lack of updating of the food and services basket that is used to measure poverty for income that should be made based on the National Survey of Household Expenses 2017-2018 (ENGHO)that changes the patterns of expenses that a family has. “The fall in poverty in general does not have the same consistency, because it is measured with a basket that does not reflect the updated prices of services, rates or transport, which today weigh much more in homes,” Salvia emphasized.
“Statistics show improvements, but We are not comparing equivalent scenarios in terms of consumption capacity. Current household consumptions are going down, while fixed expenses, such as rates, transport or education, increase. With a methodology that considers these changes in the structure of spending, poverty would be higher than the indicators show today, ”he explained.
Methodological explanations of poverty decline
Within the statistical universe, there are opinions that analyze the improvement in the income statement as well as the composition of the basic basket that measures the poverty threshold. After the strong deceleration of the CPI, the capture of income improved. It is estimated that “with high inflation people agreed less than how much had previously charged” and the fourth quarter of 2023 onwards improved a lot.
“We believe that the decrease in inflation helped, but there was also a positive methodological change that did the survey”stressed Carrera, coinciding with the position that UCA has at least a year ago. Although he clarified that it is “a hypothesis based on the fact that from the fourth quarter of 2023 questions were added to better capture non -labor income.”
“In any case we believe that this about exaggerated the decrease in poverty. Official poverty tells you that we are with less poverty than the one left by Macri, but no labor income indicator, which is the main one in the entry of households, is better than when the Pro left the government,” said the economist.
In that line, Salvia added that if the methodology is adjusted, “the current levels of poverty would be above 40%.” “The situation is comparable to that left by Macri in 2019 with 35%, but when applying the updates that reflect the changes in prices and weights, both that moment and this show greater values,” he added.
“There is no explanation for such an abrupt fall of almost six points in poverty. It is more a methodological problem than a real change in household welfare. The improvement is partly explained by a change in the capture of income -perhaps by the form of the instrument or for how households declare what they win -but that does not mean that there is a real leap in consumption or in the quality of life, ”Sage summarized.
The official poverty data of the first half of the year will be agreed on September 25 and is expected to be below 35%, according to private projections.
Source: Ambito
