When the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, He sent on July 3 a Budget advance 2026 to the Congress, it was recorded that in December 2025 the dollar It would be located in $ 1,245. However, currently the price already exceeds $ 1,450testing the roof of the band agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In just three months, the situation of the economy changed drastically. The interest ratesthat at that time they were in the order of 29%They overcome the 60% (more than double)while the planned inflation For the whole year it was from 22%.
Now, according to the data of the Indec to Augustprices accumulate an increase in 19.5%while the Survey of market expectations (REM) from the Central Bank (BCRA) the locals in the 28.2% for 2025.
Retched projections
What does this mean? That all projections agreed with the Monetary Fund in April, when the understanding with the government was signed, They were outdated and it will be necessary to rethink them completely.
And in the organism they are aware of it. In fact, in the market it is already suspected that the Milei government will not have political strength to advance with the structural reforms to which it has been committed.
“We look forward to the 2026 budget to continue this progress, lay the basis for the necessary tax reforms and consolidate the achievements reached to date“said Julie Kozack, the IMF spokeswoman, at the first press conference after summer break.
The Government will present the budget this Monday at Congress, and the President Javier Milei He will explain it in the National Chain. The economic team prepared a pattern of income and expenses next year that at the end of the period leaves a 2.2% primary surplus. All this includes growth projections and a PBI adjusted by inflation.
That is, the important thing to determine whether the budget 2026 will see where the government that will end the 2025. Probably this year, if there is a debate, it will be strong again that official projections are too optimisticas during the government of Alberto Fernández and of Cristina Fernándezwhen inflation figures were underestimated.
Regarding the level of activity, the July advance letter projected a growth of the 5.5% GDP for 2025. By sectors, the industry A would expand 5.3% and the tradea 7.6%. I also expected an increase in 7.2% in private consumptionof the 5% in the public and of 22.7% in investment. The Exports They would grow 3.7% and the Importsa 25.2%.
In fiscal matters, the government estimated that tax collection will increase a 22.3% in 2026 compared to this year. And the Tax pressure would go up from 22.23% to 22.74% of GDP. The increase would be explained by the impact of macroeconomic conditions and tax administration measures.
Income by Earnings They would grow 23.2% year -on -yearcontributing 0.15 additional points to GDPdriven by higher prices, exchange rate, salaries and imports.
And all this in the middle of a Electoral period whose result can be decisive for the end of the year numbers. It is almost a futurology exercise.
Ideal Budget vs. The possible
In 2025, the President decided to extend the 2023 budget for the second time to prevent Congress from changing the text he presented a year ago. It is known that the president considers almost a crime That guidelines with deficit are approved.
On September 15, 2024 he himself to take the project to Congress and offered a speech before the deputies. That normally reached an explanation of the Minister of Economy before the Budget and Finance Commission. The presence of the president provided a framework of Institutional importance that strictly merits the issue.
Since the projects are presented with the special power so that the National Executive Power (PEN) can rearrange items, without uploading total expend Letter of intentionwhich is known that they will be modified at the same time. The Legislative can authorize an increase in 10% items for social plans and a reduction in defense, and by DNU or an administrative decision the chief of cabinet can invest that authorization.
Under that premise, the budget ideal For Milei it would be for Congress to approve without changes, with the goal of a Primary surplus equivalent to 2.2% of GDP. However, if the libertarian government is willing to negotiate with the governors and with the “friend” opposition after an October elections that, so far, are not very favorable, the most likely scenario is that this goal is moderated. In that case, the projected surplus should be lower.
The operators of the City They glimpse that Milei, even winning in October, would only have a group of deputies who could barely reach for shield vetoesbut insufficient to carry out reforms, such as Tax and the laborwhich are key so that the model proposed by libertarians work.
Source: Ambito
