In a context of growing exchange tension and pressure on financial markets, The government faces a Delicate balance between sustaining the upper limit of the dollar flotation band and projecting a flexibility of its monetary policy after the October elections. Sources from the financial and business sector who participated in some meetings last week with officials of the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) revealed divergent postures between key officialswhich generated uncertainty in investors, while the country prepares to comply with external debt matches exceeding US $ 6,000 million until next January.
The Executive’s strategy includes a high -impact political movement: A photo of President Javier Milei with Kristalina Georgieva, director of the IMF, and Scott Besent, Treasury Secretary of the United States (USA), during the Atlantic Council gala, which will seek to strengthen international confidence in economic management at a critical moment for country risk and sovereign bonds.
Defend the roof of the band until October and then … will see
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputohe transmitted to bank representatives that the government is committed to defend the exchange band roofset around $ 1,472, with the support of the IMF. This message was backed by the vice minister José Luis Daza in a recent meeting with a small group of investors. However, in that line, in meetings with the president of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili, sources that participated in that meeting argue that the official opened the door to a possible relaxation of the upper limit After the October elections.
These signals – for some contradictory ones – are crucial for markets, which They fear that an ultranza defense of the band’s roof exhausts the necessary reserves to face debt paymentswhich could further shoot the country risk and limit access to external financing. The dollar comes from climbing 7.4% in the last week, reaching $ 1,465 in the retail market and $ 1,455 in the wholesale segment. This advance, which accumulates 40% in 2025 compared to 20% inflation in the same period, positions the American ticket to the edge of the upper limit of the band established in April, which fits monthly at 1%.
LIVING FINANCE MARKETS ACTIONS INVERSIONES INVERSIONS DOLAR BONDS
Dollar, volatility and elections: the government is going through turbulence zone.
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In the futures market, the quotes for the end of October already exceed this ceiling, reflecting expectations of a post -election controlled depreciation. In different reports of investment banks it is argued that The exchange pressure was exacerbated after the adverse results for the ruling party in the elections Legislative of the Province of Buenos Aires. And that this has generated “doubts about popular support for structural reforms in progress.”
Restrictions to dollarize via cion
To this is added a limited supply of currencies by seasonal factors and a persistent demand, which led the government to take restrictive measures. Friday, the National Securities Commission (CNV) issued a circular that restricted dollarization operations through Cajución in the MEP and CCL marketstriggering alerts in the City of Buenos Aires. This measure contributed to a black day for Argentine bonds, with 5% average falls in sovereign titles in dollars, such as bonars and global, which accumulate a 14% discount in September. The debacle raised the country risk, measured by the JP Morgan index, to levels close to the 1,100 basic points, a maximum not registered since October 2024.
Analysts warn that The band’s roof defense could compromise dollars reservesessential for debt matches. “The market is evaluating whether the Government will prioritize exchange stability in the short term or preserve funds for external obligations,” said an operator of the financial square.
Rumors indicate that the BCRA and the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS) would have sold about US $ 300 million on Friday, reducing the margin of maneuver. This week, considered a crucial challenge, is aggravated by volatility in bonds and country risk, which acts as a barometer of the country’s solvency perception.
The one -year photo, a resource to mitigate the sale of dollars
In this scenario, President Javier Milei bets on a high -impact political gesture to calm the markets. During his trip to New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly, a dinner is scheduled on September 24 in the Atlantic Council galain the Ziegfeld Ballroom near Central Park, where Milei will receive the Global Citizen Award for the economic reforms promoted in Argentina.
In this event, you will share a table with Kristalina Georgievadirector of the IMF, and Scott Besent, Treasury Secretary of the Donald Trump administration, who will personally deliver the award. Milei’s image with these key figures in the international financial field seeks to project a solid support for the Argentine economic strategy, at a time when the country negotiates a new financing program with the IMF for US $ 20,000 million.
This Strategic “photo”according to market sources, it could be a Government attempt to counteract exchange uncertainty and pressure on bonds by reinforcing the perception of external support before investors. The strategy seems focused on containing the dollar to the elections, avoiding an abrupt devaluation that can undermine the credibility of the economic plan. However, the operators anticipate that, after the elections, An adjustment could be implemented in the exchange band to allow controlled depreciationfacilitating the accumulation of reserves and relieving pressure on public finances. “The challenge is to maintain the balance between electoral stability and long -term needs,” said an economist consulted.
The evolution of the country risk and the recovery of the bonds will be critical indicators to assess whether the Government manages to stabilize the expectations, in an environment where Friday’s fall has left visible injuries in the political risk premium.
Source: Ambito