The Blue guru gave its forecast on how the government will face the debt maturities

Then the analyst’s column:

The debt is paid or paid

Future debt payments are low as a percentage of GDP. If we achieve fiscal surplus, and we have bridges to the investment, they are paid without problems. The dollar hardly exceeds the band’s roof.

The post elections scenario tests the government in the next 6 weeks, the nationalization of a provincial election where the absent was clearly complicated by the economic scenario, this demonstrates lack of political muscle in the Executive Power.

In the province of Buenos Aires on a register of 14,376,592 citizens, 5,608,309 million were absent, and explains 39% of the register. Who won the elections (Patria/ PJ) Saco 3.820.229 votes, much less than the absent, followed by the Front of Lla and the PRO with 2,723,710, and other forces took 1,535,487 votes. The white votes added 688,967 votes.

The Argentine economy showed fiscal surplus since January 2024this added to the deregulations that were carried out, the tax decline, and a capitalization of the Central Bank allowed us to have an inflation rate that is below 2.0%in the last 4 months, May 1.5%, June 1.6%, July 1.9%and August 1.9%. It should be noted that in 3 of the last 4 months there was deflation in seasonal prices.

The current account that we relieve the balance of payments a few months ago was a threat to many economic analystsThis is reversed in recent months, within the framework of an economy that grows less, and greater exports of the field, everything presumes that its tendera deficit to shrink if we annualize it. On the side of financing needs, we have noticed that in the last 12 months, US $ 17,393 million has entered, with a great contribution of IMF operations and loans from other multilateral and bilateral organizations that total US $ 19,653 million.

If we take the Primary Treasury Speaker of the Treasury that adds US $ 10,586 million in the last 12 months until July 2025. The current account deficit and I leave as a rise in reserves.

If we look at the maturities we have ahead, in the next two years $ 34,200 million expires, that implies getting about US $ 17,100 million per year. It is an important money, but symbolic, we consider that the Faithful Foundation estimates a GDP for 2026 at US $ 740,000 million, and by 2027 at US $ 818,000 million, if we estimate similar debt maturities for both years, they would represent 2.3% and 2.1% of GDP.

Argentina has projected by 2026 a primary fiscal surplus of 2.2%, with which it would cover all the interest payments of the debt, and would raise them to 2.5% of GDP by the year 2027.

While the tax surplus in PBI percentage has to rise, capital debt payments as PBI tend to go down.

Conclusions

• The Government states that by the years 2026 and 2027 we will have budgetary balance, with a growing primary surplus product of the highest payment of interest in the debt.
• Debt capital payments have to go down as a percentage of GDP, it would seem irrational that Argentina goes to a scenario of non -payment of the debt, when in the next two years it faces payments for 4.4% of GDP.
• The public debt stock enforceable to the first quarter of the year 2025 adds US $ 249,295 million, and represents 36.3% of GDP. Of that total, 11.6% is with international financial organizations, where we could request a renewal, and the remaining 24.7% are privately, this adds US $ 169,893 million.
• We do not see problems to face the payment of debt in the coming years, if the government sustains the fiscal surplus. Continue with the capitalization process of the Central Bank. The balance of payments is financed among private entries.
• By the 2026 and 2027 Argentina, exports should increase the greatest amounts exported in oil and gas. Mining would not increase these years, but would lay the foundations for a greater income of dollars in the future. As for the field, there is moisture throughout the territory, with which we go to a record harvest that could contribute an additional US $ 6,000 million for the year 2026. In addition, it must be remembered that the Government will have an ambitious policy of privatizations in the coming years, which will collect will swell the reserves of the Central Bank.
• In summary, The dollar can touch the roof of the band, the central bank sell dollars, withdraw pesos, and this does not affect future debt payments.