The President Javier Milei presented this Monday night on the national chain the 2026 budget project and left a series of economic and political definitions, which will be central to the debate in Congress.
In a speech with a more conciliatory tone, vHe forgot to place the fiscal balance as a central axis of his management, anticipated that the country could grow at 5% per year only to maintain the surplus and sent signals to both the governors and the sectors affected by the adjustment.
Fiscal balance as “cornerstone”
Milei opened his message highlighting that the 2026 budget maintains the tax equilibrium premise, as well as the one presented in 2025. “There is no other way than the fiscal order, the monetary order and, therefore, the exchange order,” He stressed.
The president emphasized that it is the lower national spending level in relation to GDP of the last 30 yearsand even below the provincial expense for the first time since the 1990s.
Within that framework, he ruled out a “talk plan” and said the treasure will not be able to resort to the financing of the Central Bank. “The fiscal deficit has already failed in all its versions. The only possible way is the fiscal balance,” he said.
Growth projections
In one of the most resonant sections, Milei said that “just for having reached and maintaining fiscal balance, Argentina would reach a growth base of 5% per year.”
The president contrasted that scenario with the performance of recent years: between 2011 and 2023, he recalled, GDP per capita fell more than 10%, while in neighboring countries it grew between 15%and 20%.
“That is the difference between being able to dream of a better future or remain in a decadent present,” he said. In addition, he added that if structural reforms are approved, growth could be extended and lead to Argentina to converge with high -income countries in a decade, and to be power in 30 years.
Expenditure priorities: retirement, health and education
The project, according to Milei, allocates 85% of resources to “human capital”: education, health and retirements. In numbers, he announced $ 4.8 billion for national universities and rise in retirement (+5% real), health (+17% real) and education (+8% real). A 5% increase will also be granted above inflation in disability pensions.
In this way, the president sought to highlight that, despite the general adjustment, the 2026 budget prioritizes sensitive social items and avoids cuts in key areas.
New fiscal rules
The 2026 budget also includes unpublished clauses, according to Milei:
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Fiscal stability rule: If the income falls or the expenses exceed the expected, it must be adjusted automatically to guarantee the balance.
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Issue prohibition: The restriction of treasure financing is reinforced via Central Bank.
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Surplus as a credit source: Milei said that, for the first time in decades, the public sector may finance the private to develop infrastructure and logistics, instead.
Some political signals expected by the market
The speech included gestures towards the governors, amid the need for legislative consensus to approve the law, something that the market awaits after the hard electoral defeat in the province of Buenos Aires. Milei announced that For the first time, a regime of extinction of reciprocal obligations between nation and provinces, a pending debt in the federal tax relationship is incorporated.
With a political tone, Milei sought to show authority but also empathy: he thanked the Argentines for the “heroic temper” demonstrated during the first year of management and assured that “the worst already happened”, in a message to the sectors most beaten by the adjustment.
Restitution of the “presumption of fiscal innocence”
Also insisted on the restitution of the “presumption of fiscal innocence” Through a simplified earninging regime, which he described as a key step to rebuild the relationship between taxpayers and the State.
Key projections for 2026: dollar, inflation and GDP
After Milei’s speech, the government announced the macroeconomic projections of the Budget 2026. For December next year the ruling party estimates that The price of the dollar is even lower than the current value and that inflation will continue to decelerate significantly.
Specifically, the expected wholesale exchange rate is $ 1,423while the official forecast for the variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 10.1%. In addition, a Real Increase in the Internal Gross Product (GDP) of 5%.
Also, the 2025 estimates They were striking. Particularly that of the dollar, since the government provides for a value of $ 1,325 For next December, when the price today is $ 1,467; From here it follows that Milei and his economic team see greater exchange calm and after the October elections.
In terms of inflation, the expected figure is 24.5%somewhat higher than 20.2% estimated by the participants of the last survey of market expectations (REM) prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA). At the same time, the projection of the Executive Power for the GDP is 5.4%a value far higher than 4.4% that calculated the private sector after the cooling that economic activity has been showing through the combo of high interest rates and stagnant real salaries/in fall.
Source: Ambito
