He wholesale official dollar for the first time broke the ceiling of the flotation regime. He Central Bank (BCRA) He intervened with U $ S53 millionwell above market speculation. Even so, the currency closed in the $ 1,474.50significantly above the roof of the band, which was located on Wednesday in $ 1,474.30. Investors closely observe the fire power of monetary authority.
The official hand was also evidenced in the future of the dollar, According to the operators. Despite this, All contracts show progress and for October the market discounts that the currency will pierce the roof of the band.
“BCRA was active in the wheel selling DLR/SEP25 to keep it with an implicit below 0% (closed at -5%), which did not generate effect on the spot, which remained a policyholder until closing,” they said from ADCAPalthough there was also a presence in the longest contracts such as May and June 2026.
In recent days, the director of the Central Bank (BCRA), Federico Furiase, He affirmed that the monetary authority had U $ 22,000 million to intervene on the roof of the band. Reissued the remembered “buy, champion” of Luis “Toto” Caputo, He suggested that the market would only verify the Credibility of the scheme “If you test” the roof of the band, There the agency’s ability will be put into play to defend it.
In this wheel, in addition, the debate is put into play in deputies of the vetoes to the University financing and Pediatric emergency In the hospital Garrahanbefore an increasingly weakened executive after the overwhelming defeat in the elections of the province of Buenos Aires.
Dollar exceeds the roof of the band: What is the fire power of the BCRA?
The eyes are now put in the actions of the BCRAwhich has the Monetary support disbursed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to intervene in the marketfollowing the new agreement signed in April.
While Furiase said that the BCRA has U $ 22,000 million liquids for intervene, Gabriel Caamaño of Outlier He specified a Scope that “The power of the central fire is US $ 14,000 million of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)”since the official would have added dollars of the lace of private deposits in hard currency, which “does not seem prudent.”
“The roof of the band is credible if the BCRA goes out to intervene as it should, if they do not stop being credible,” Caamaño emphasized. “While they maintain their commitment to the current scheme, which implies that if it touches that level, they have to sell everything necessary to keep that value, the roof is credible,” he added.
Within this framework and with the possibility of squandering the dollars of the BCRA reserves, the Sovereign bonds in dollars do not stop falling facing an increasingly limited reservations expectation for the upcoming maturities, which amount to US $ 8,100 to January inclusive.
The level of country riskin turn, close to 1,200 points It rules out the possibility of accessing the international credit market, and there is no other that hacienda goes out to buy currencies, which would unfailingly derive in Another devaluation scenario and, therefore, greater inflationary pressure. “The reservations bleed will have a direct correlation with the parities of the bonds, which already They began to discount this scenario“They catapulted from PPI.
The US $ 14,000 million of the IMF reaches until October, but later?
“According to our estimates, the Central Bank would have almost U $25,000 million of liquid reserves, of those who I could use at least US $ 14,000 millionthat is, the disbursements of the IMF of April and July, to intervene in the market, “said the Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank in a report. To spend those US $ 14,000 million here until October 26, the monetary authority should sell US $ 500 million per daya figure only seen in a couple of weeks throughout the last two decades.
Indeed, from the province they reflected that, From 2003 to date, “Only in the third week of April 2018 and in the third week of October 2019: when the first run of the Cambiemos management began and on the wheels prior to the presidential election of 2019, the BCRA lost more than US $ 450 million a day. Therefore, we should cross six weeks like those to “burn” all those resources.
This makes the market believe that there will not be a modification in the exchange scheme here to the elections. “I do not seem advisable to put changes before the elections. That they fulfill at least for a while the scheme they agreed with the IMF and that they communicated,” he said Caamaño
“The US $ 14,000 million are a lot. After the elections, with the result already put and that uncertainty already resolved, it can be a more conducive moment for changes“The specialist added. In the meantime, he suggested to the economic team that” he commits to the scheme and does not do strange things. “
Even so, the economist thinks that the government It will be increasingly difficult to sustain this exchange rate regime, since “The market has already concluded that the bands after the elections fly, because they were very short“.” If we had accumulated reservations before, it could have been reached differently when sending another sign. These expensive dead times are recurring in our economy, “he deepened.
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Source: Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank.
For Martín Kalos, of Epyca, The possibility that the dollar touchs the roof of the band is harmful, since “From that moment on, the BCRA is positioned as a seller and becomes very difficult for the dollar to fall.” “It is needed to have a logical volatility because if not the only thing that is guaranteed is the business in the roof of the band. It is like the graphic shown by President Javier Milei (the ends of the bands that make the dollar always converge the center), but vice versa,” he added.
In that line, Kalos He underlined the need for the government, with the BCRA in command, “Find a way to change the panorama integrally, modifying the entire scheme.” That, he explained, covers from the interest rates policy and the lace coefficient to the definition of the band’s roof and the market intervention scheme.
Although he warned that “this would demand a series of changes in the scheme that are not clearly in the road map of the libertarian administration, which seeks to reach the elections maintaining, at any cost, an insubstant model.”
Source: Ambito