2. A strong impact on the energy market. “Russia is a major producer and exporter of gas. 40% of European consumption is provided by that country. This will have an upward effect on the price of gas and the availability of liquefied gas on a global scale. The price of oil will also show an upward impact, either because Russia reduces its exports or because Western countries impose sanctions on those who acquire them”, indicates the economist.
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Kindness: El Universal
3. A rise in the price of cereals and oilseeds. “Russia and Ukraine are strong producers and exporters of wheat. The decrease in supply, due to the war, would trigger prices, including the rest of the cereals and oilseeds,” says the CENE director.
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impulse. The best weather conditions would allow a harvest of about 140 million tons.
4. An impact on the financial markets. “As in all times of turbulence, a liquidation of financial assets in favor of gold and the dollar, which are the reserve assets par excellence, is expected. In any case, the fate of the dollar will be tied to the role played by the United States in the conflict”, warns Beker.
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Ignatius Petunichi
5. Consequences for Argentina. “The increase in the price of our primary exports may be a positive factor, although the lower growth of the world economy will conspire against the rest of our sales abroad, and we will have to face a bulging bill for energy imports. The relative isolation of Argentina with respect to the capital markets would mean that the financial turmoil may have a lesser effect than in other countries”, completes the economist.
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In the same way, Luis Argueroprofessor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the University of Belgrano, delved into the threats and opportunities that the Russia-Ukraine War brings to the Argentine economy.
In this regard, he agreed that, although Argentina will benefit from the increase in food prices, this will be offset by the rising costs of energy imports. “In a context of internal debate on subsidies for energy consumption, the increase in generation costs will make it practically impossible for these subsidies to drop in real terms in 2022”, forecast.
On the other hand, he argued that although “Argentine’s erratic foreign policy does not allow us to predict the position of a country that just days ago had its president offering it as Russia’s gateway to the region, in a context of negotiations with the IMF and with the need to achieve the support of Western powers, Argentina will be forced to choose a side”.
From a commercial perspective, he indicated that, as “Only 1% of Argentine exports are destined for Russia, and there are few Russian investments in the country, there will not be a strong impact if some type of sanction is imposed on the trade of goods or on companies of Russian origin.”
And lastly, he stressed that, in the long term, the conflict could present an opportunity for Argentina: “Europe will limit its energy imports from Russia, and will need to import from other sources. The potential that Argentina has in the sector and the historical good relationship between our country and the European continent presents it as an interesting option to supply part of that future demand”.
Source: Ambito
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