It is expected that the third quarter data will be still worse, due to the volatility of the dollar and interest rates, which joined the low real wages.
He Internal Gross Product (GDP) contracted 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the first three months of the year. It was the first negative variation since the second quarter of last year, in the midst of a stagnation of real wages at very depressed historical levels.
He consumptionmain component of GDP, 1.1% intertrimestral fell. Meanwhile, the Exports 2.2% and the investment 0.5%were reduced.
Paradoxically, only the public spending (+1.1%), a “demonized” variable constantly in government speeches.
GDP improved in annual terms, from the recession floor
In interannual terms, the economy exhibited an improvement of 6.3%Although it is worth highlighting the low base of comparison of the second quarter of 2024, when the rebound in “V” had not yet begun.
Regarding a year ago, an advance of 32.1% in the investment was stood out promptly, fundamentally tractioned by increases in machinery and equipment, and transport equipment, particularly of imported origin. Consumption climbed 9.9%, exports 3.3%and public spending 0.6%.
At the sector level, the main annual increases were verified in financial intermediation (+26.7%), hotels and restaurants (+17%) and construction (+10.6%). At the other extreme, he highlighted a deep fall of 42.2% in fishing, item that was affected by a union conflict, derived from a structural crisis due to the fall of exports, not compensated by domestic consumption.
Source: Ambito
