The economist, professor and friend of Javier Milei, Juan Carlos de Pabloanalyzed the BUDGET PRESENTATION 2026which took place last Monday night and put an unknown on one of the main definitions of the president’s speech: “It is not known if the worst has happened, that will be said by the historians of the future.”
In detail, during the presentation of the project, the president said that “The fiscal balance is the cornerstone of our government plan. “ In this context, he announced an increase in real terms for retirement (5%), health expenditure (17%), education (8%) and 5% to receive for each pensioner for disability.}
Juan Carlos de Pablo’s analysis about the 2026 budget
“There is nothing more difficult than making a budget”he said at the beginning of Paul’s analysis. “Now you have to rip the congress and discuss it.”
According to the economist, the presidential presentation stressed again that the key is that “the fiscal balance is not negotiated.” In that sense, he pointed against legislators, whom He urged “looking for alternatives on that basis.”
“When you are deputy and senator, the responsibility evaporates. If all projects were put into practice and the deficit was again 4 points, no one will regret having voted what he voted, “he deepened in dialogue with Futurock.
In this sense, by Paul analyzed that the discussion with the governors It will be “easier” than with legislators, since both the government and the provincial bosses “They have executive responsibilities.”
Briefly, the economist also referred to the current exchange tension and the performance of Luis Caputo At the head of the Ministry of Economy: “Any person, capable or not capable, boludes always says. The ‘Buy, champion’ is a bullshit. “
In this scenario of post -election, Paul said: “Kuka’s risk does not heat me. This government has no governors, it has few legislators; they fight as they can. Any government anywhere in the world does the same.”
Facing October, the economist close to the President remarked that after the defeat in the province of Buenos Aires, the libertarian leader “began to work.” “He made a self -criticism, just made it public. The best thing you can do is shut up and work, “he said.
Dollar: How much will the exchange rate will arrive for the end of 2025, according to budget data 2026
The Government included in the 2026 budget project a key fact for markets: the projection of the wholesale nominal exchange rate (TCN). According to the official document, the dollar would close December 2025 at $ 1,325, Although it is currently above that level, even around the ceiling of the exchange band ($ 1,473.40).
The projection for 2025 It implies an increase of almost 30% throughout the year (until Monday, the accumulated rise is 43.7%)above 24.5% annual inflation estimated for December. In other words, the economic team not only rules out a discreet leap of the exchange rate, but foresees an exchange appreciation after the October elections, the scene that the market considers unlikely.
By December 2026, in addition, the ruling party projects that the dollar will remain below the current value and that inflation will slowly slowly. Specifically, the expected wholesale exchange rate would be DE $ 1,423, lo which would represent a nominal increase of just 7.4% for next year. In turn, the estimated variation of Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 10.1%.
Source: Ambito
