Javier Milei presented the Budget 2026 doing central axis in it Fiscal surpluswho presented as the mother of all stable and prosperous economies, although he later said that only five countries In the world they have this particularity. This would be the condition for Argentina Create 5.4% in 2025 and 5% in 2026although economists look distrustful that the possibility that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advance to that extent in a context of low credibility and look at the sustainability of the exchange regime after the October elections.
“We have to understand once and forever there is a direct relationship between him fiscal orderthe Country Risk Lowhe economic growth and the prosperity“said the national chain this Monday night. In addition, he warned that “The worst already happened” reissuing the phrase Mauricio Macri at the opening of ordinary sessions of the Congress on March 1, 2018.
A month ago the private growth forecasts for this year were among the 4.2% and the 4.5%while the survey of market expectations published by the Central Bank (BCRA) He was the most optimistic with an advance of the 5% average. Now they cut the projections between the 3.6% and the 4%continuing as the most optimistic of the REM, which was located in the 4.4% In your latest report.
Budget 2026 projects a 5% growth in 2026, but economists look at it suspicious
The Law of laws provides for growth to be 5.4% Average annual in 2025 and of 5% in 2026something that is not conditioned with the current level, since, as explained by the economist of Balances Gonzalo Carrerathe advance should be 0.8% monthly here at the end of the year. One of the comments that stood out regarding the 2026 projection was that it is basically “fiction”, although the source preferred to reserve its identity.
By 2026 analysts project an even more pessimistic scenario that could have the economy even below the level of 2025. As it cannot be otherwise, at the time of low expectations for the defeat in the elections; The market manages two scenarios: one in which it is possible to recalibrate and anchor expectations, with a growth of 0.5%; and another more unstable with a fall in 2% of the GDPthese estimates correspond to Ecogo. For its part, from CP Consultantsthey agreed that if expectations are not able to anchor 2%.
The most positive scenario continues to be the one that foresees a growth of 3.2% for 2026, but that in recent months it is correcting down.
Does only surplus do you reach?
Despite what Javier Milei insists that the surplus is the mother of all stable economies, Economists observe it as “necessary” but “not sufficient” condition for the growth and prosperity of the countryas the president presented it. Yes an “economic stability” is necessarywhich is achieved with balanced accountsbut with a sustainable level of reservations to pay the bonds and defend the exchange regime, which is currently another of the market doubts: what will happen to the band scheme after October.
“The government needs to accumulate reservations, sustain a a bit higher real exchange rate – to accumulate dollars in the BCRA – and that probably marks a tension with stabilization and deflation. But without that, hardly from one day to the next we started in a sustained growth process,” said Carrera.
The stabilization They do observe it as the mother of the bases on which a prosperous economy is supported. “You have to finish sealing the stabilization process and starting a SUSTAINED GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS with clear strategic sectors that can increase productivity independently From the economic cycle, “added Carrera, although he called for attention and stressed that this” requires a favorable external context “, which would not currently be happening, in a world recession scenario.
In turn, Pedro Martinez Gerber, of the consultant Pxq, He pointed out that the path of how 2025 is really finished, in terms of economic growth, will undoubtedly mark the dynamics of the exchange rate, which will impact inflation and growth. “The future of the bands is going to be key and today is one of the main unknowns,” he said.
Javier Milei Nacional Chain
Presidency
For his part, Rocío Bisang, of Ecogo, emphasized that the “Strongly contractive monetary policy” that the government had from the FLEXIBILIZATION OF THE CEPO until The latest elections had a correlation in the Activity dropwith one very high uncertainty Regarding that it will happen after the October elections with the scheme of exchange bands. In that context, he explained that “we see quite difficult growth at those rates” (5.4% in 2025 and 5% in 2026).
Facing 2026, for Bisang the possibility that growth is maintained will depend in part on what happens in the coming months, “although without reservations and with important needs in dollars, it looks that some type of correction in the dollar will be necessary.”
Regarding what is needed forward so that economic growth is maintained, the economist stressed that although in the current context it is difficult to think about it, “a credible economic program is necessary, which allows accumulating reserves and with fiscal surplus, among other indicators. After that, discussions can only be given regarding whether there should be a fiscal reform or not, or how to promote it but the truth is that we are not currently in that place.”
In addition to growth prospects, the expected wholesale exchange rate is $ 1,423 by 2026while the official forecast for the variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 10.1%. In the Commercial balance of goods and services by 2025 it is estimated that the “red” would be from –U $ 2,447 million, while in 2026 it would become -U $ S5.751 millions.
“It is very difficult to think of a growth scenario by 2026 with how hard the government has been in its strategy of salary roof and the need for review that raises the exchange scheme. More in structural terms to grow in a sustained way Argentina needs a broader agenda that allows you to address not only the inflation problem, but also the Fragility of the external sectorhe debt problemthe Income problems of a very important part of the population and productivity deficits “the economist analyzed Pablo Moldovan.
Source: Ambito
