He Commercial surplus grew Au $ 1,402 million In August, the highest figure since December last year. The improvement was mainly due to the dynamics of exports, which recorded a historical record measured in quantities.
“Unlike what happened in July, where the result of agro predominated in August More than 50% of the surplus was explained by the behavior of the energy balance“The LCG consultancy stressed in a report.
As reported on Thursday, in the eighth month of the year The country sold abroad for US $ 7,865 million. In unstacted terms, the fourth consecutive monthly increase was treated (+2.4% compared to July), explained mainly by the contribution of fuels.
Exports reached a historical record, thanks to the contribution of Vaca Muerta
“Export improvement is undoubtedly virtuous. To take dimension, August was a record in quantities exported from history (not only compared to other agostos, compared to any month), “he said in dialogue with Scope The economist of the Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economy (IEP) of the UBA, Federico Bernini.
This performance was largely possible by the contribution of Vaca Muerta and the gas pipelines that allow the evacuation of hydrocarbons to the main centers of consumption and ports. According to the estimates of the Rosario Stock Exchange, In 2025 the greatest oil production has probably seen since 1998 and an absolute record in the gas segment.
Regarding August 2024, exports increased 16.4% (+US $ 1,107 million)mainly due to the rise in the quantities (+15.3%), although they also favored international prices (+0.9%). In physical volume, energy shipments were the ones that grew the most (+58.6%), followed by primary products (+29%).
Bernini added that, although sales are showing a good performance since the beginning of the year, probably the exchange rate riseand the appreciation of the Brazilian realhave influenced favorably.
At the product level, the ones that contributed the most dollars compared to a year ago were soy beans (+u $ s449 million), oil (+u $ s221 million), wheat (+u $ s141 million) and soybean oil (+U $ S136 million). In addition to the aforementioned influence of Vaca Muerta, LCG added that “the now definitive reduction of aliquots of the withholdings” may also have had impact.
For its part, the manufactures of industrial origin They were the only item that experienced a setback in quantities, 8.6%.
Imports are stagnant since April, but in cars they fly
In parallel, August imports added about US $ 6,463 million. In monthly terms, a slight rise in the 0.9%the second consecutively.
However, it has been observed a certain stagnation At the level of purchases, in tune with an economic activity that probably accelerates its contraction in the third quarter, already started in the second quarter according to data published by INDEC this week. “Imports have been stable since April. Probably the next months fall due to the increase in the exchange rate and the fall in activity“Bernini said about it.
In annual terms, imports climbed 32.4%. Here the main increases were recorded in the acquisition of vehicles.
“At the sector level, The automaker continued to expand its commercial deficit in Augustwith a red that was $ 881 million. This due to exports that fell in August 12.4% per year but imports that increased no less than 50.6%, “said the Abeceb consultancy.
The consultant explained that automotive sales “are still affected by Competitiveness problems that hinder the penetration of alternative markets, to which the Weakening of Brazilian demandour main export destination “and that, on the other hand,”Imports supply a growing proportion of internal demand“Within the framework of commercial opening.
By 2025 a commercial surplus is expected much lower than in 2024, although the perspectives improved
Top, the seasonality of the last months of each year does not allow to be too optimistic about the support of these levels of commercial surplus. However, the dynamics that exports have been having, depreciation of the exchange rate and the effect of a cold economy on imports can lead to an exception to the rule.
“For the end of the year, everything points to a Commercial surplus environment of the U $ 7.4 billion, Against US $ 18,928 million last year. That Guarismo is somewhat higher than that of the previous forecasts (US $ S6.400 mllones), where high dynamism affects, but less expected for imports and agricultural performance of the last two months, “Abeceb deepened.
On the other hand, despite the favorable dynamics of the commercial balance, Bernini clarified that “if the demand for weights falls for doubts in the sustainability of the economic plan, the dollars of exports will not reach to supply the market without rising the exchange rate, which is what the government wants to avoid.”
Source: Ambito
