Luis Caputo promised to “sell to the last dollar on the roof of the band.” The City speculates with possible future regimes, the return of the gap activates the curlers and the central dusts layers of the stocks.
The speed of events increases. The “Water Plan” that the government thought for the current exchange scheme to the elections He entered into crisis. The red line that represented the beginning of the direct intervention of the Central Bank in the official market crossed five and a half weeks before the national legislative. In just two wheels, the monetary authority sold US $ 432 million and The dynamics that took pressure on the dollar threatens to give way to an accelerated bleeding of reserves.
In the offices of the City they consider that the band regime is “Game Over”, at least with the current format. Wall Street banks, local entities and operators analyze and speculate on what will be the exchange scheme that will overtland. For example, consulting firm 1816, one of the most listened to in the market, evaluated Three scenarios: a free flotation without bands, a devaluation to then move on to a fixed exchange rate or the return of the exchange rate (which this Thursday had the return of one of its chapters). In any case, Everyone see a higher dollar.
That expectation is the one that opens the door to a growing demand. The stimulus, for those who expect the band regime to fly, is to “anticipate and go find the subsidized price” by the official intervention, reflected an experienced economist in the financial sector. Above all, the closest the expiration date of the current scheme is perceived.
To that is added the return of the exchange gap. Despite being still limited, you can quickly activate the classic arbitrations to benefit from differentials between contributions. This Thursday, the dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) closed to $ 1,564.10, almost $ 90 above the wholesale exchange rate and almost $ 55 above the retail average to which the general public access. That is, two spreads of 6% and 3.7%. Without stocks for most human people and with a gap, “demand is infinite, It is an infinite vip rulo “he said to Scope A source from his office at the headquarters of a bank in the City of Buenos Aires.
On the other side of the screens, the offer is guaranteed. “We are going to sell to the last dollar on the roof of the band,” said Economy Minister Luis Caputolast night at Straeming the three anchors, which he shares with his closest officials. A reassuring message in full? It does not seem. Caputo just promised the bonds, who settled their holdings of Argentine titles and carried the country risk At 1,454 basic points, which aims to announce some type of armor before or after the next expiration matters of January and July.
For now, the countercara of that guaranteed offer at subsidized price are the reservations rented to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)that is, the ones arising from the US $ 14,000 million that the body of the new indebtedness that Javier Milei took in April already sent. Net reserves, measures with the background methodology, are negative. Those rented currencies are what now They begin to fell in the defense of a roof of the band that the City already perceives as ephemeral.
The BCRA decided to interrupt one of those “VIP curlers” with the return of crossbraft restrictions (between the official market and the MEP/CCL) for managers and shareholders of financial entities with the reappearance of the exchange gap. However, the rulo is still valid for the rest of the human people, with sectors of high heritage that will add additional pressure to the official dollar demand to take advantage of arbitration.
The measure, dictated through communication 8332, also cut another maneuver. The “Cuit loan”. Some entities offered companies an exit route to avoid the still valid restrictions of the CEPO and cancel corporate debts abroad through the CCL at a price very similar to that of the officer, with currencies that bought human people in the single and free market of the changes (Mulc) and then sold them to the companies in the financial square.
Dollar, BCRA and fire tests
The Government will face fire evidence daily. Will you get something private offer appearsthat calms the waters at least for some wheels after burning several hundred millions and with the promise that it will sell everything? Or, on the contrary, will the run add new fuel From disarmament positions in investors pesos?
The risk is an accelerated bleeding of the reservations rented to the IMF that leaves the Argentine economy in an even greater fragility and that requisits the liquidation of sovereign bonds. A considerable danger for an over -indebted economy (both with the fund and with private creditors), with access to the refinancing of the expirations increasingly remote, which is introduced into a new recessive chapter and destruction of employment, and with a government in full political crisis that sees the enthusiasm of the establishment move away.
Source: Ambito
