Money grew up for ninth consecutive month in July and, in families, reached a new record since there are records. It happened in the month in which the volatility of interest rates was unleashed, which put a brake on credits to the private sector.
Through your Report on Bankshe Central Bank (BCRA) He announced this Friday that the irregularity ratio on loans to families climbed 5.7%the highest value since the monetary authority began the series, in January 2010. In June the figure had been 5.1%.
The two lines that stand out among the most delinquency are those of personal loans and Credit cards. In the first case, the percentage went from 6.5% to 7.3%, while in the second an increase from 4.9% to 5.3% was verified.
In loans Prendaries There was also a deterioration, although much milder (from 3.7% to 3.9%). While credits Mortgage They escaped this trend and maintained a low irregularity rate and even lower than June (0.9% vs 1% the previous month).
Federico González RoucoConsultant’s economist Empiria and specialist in the mortgage loan markethe held in dialogue with Scope that the main factor of this greater delinquency is brake that economic activity and real income They have been suffering for months. In that context, since “quotas are no longer liquefied as before for the slowdown in inflation,” people find it more difficult to face their financial commitments.
Regarding the mortgages, he explained that it is a segment that “is very solid due to more intrinsic factors, since People the first thing to hold is the payment of housing”
It is expected that delinquency in companies increased in August, post triplication of rates
In companies Mora is also rising, although at a more tired and less alarming rate. Between June and July a rise was observed from 1.1% to 1.2%, with particular adjustments in pledge loans and financing via advances and documents.
However, it is worth noting that, Between July 14 and August 18, the annual nominal rate (TNA) of the advances shot from 31% to 93%. Therefore, it would not be surprising that the August data come with worse data in the business segment.
“The current account advances to companies continued their decreasing trend and accumulate a contraction of almost $ 1 billion (-10.6%) since July 10. The fall in financing balances responds to the dynamics of rates that tripled and threaten to put into Risk payment chains to hold at these levels for a long time, “the CP consultant In a report published last month.
Said collapse was accelerated from turn in the monetary policy implemented by the Governmentthat passed a scheme of monetary aggregates in which it seeks to set the amount of money from the economy and not the price (that is, the rate).
Within that framework, the difficulties of the economic team to channel the money of the banks and the growing pressure on the demand for dollars, with a BCRA without accumulation of reservations, opened a scenario of Strong increases in returns in pesos since the end of July.
After that strong initial rise, the cost of the debt of the companies came to be under 50%, although In the last two business days it would seem to be bouncing again in the face of great exchange instability.
In the case of personal loans, the TNA was already high, for practically a year in the 70%area. Even so, In the first days of September there was a return of more than 85% and currently the percentage is about 80%.
Source: Ambito
