International Trust Thermometer, the Risk country naked the fragility or support of each economic model in a matter of days.
In Argentina, talk about Country risk It’s like talking about fever in a sick body: it is not the disease itself, but it says a lot about what happens inside doors. Each political movement, each economic ad and even social tension translates into points that rise or fall in this indicator that, more than a number, works as a Sign that the world interprets in real time.
The funny thing is that the country risk does not always move to the rhythm of the real economy. It can be calm while on the street you perceive discomfort, or shoot for an electoral result before a single new data is known about inflation or reserves. That duality makes it a awkward, but essential thermometerbecause it reveals how The markets read the ability of a government to sustain its commitments.
At present, the management of Javier Milei He lived his own fluctuations: from exceeding 2,100 points in January 2024 to play a historical floor of 569 points a year later, and then climb again about 1,500, After the Peronist triumph in Buenos Aires.
Country risk JP Morgan.jpg
JP Morgan
COUNTRY RISK: How is it measured
The reflex country risk The difference between what an emerging country pays to borrow and what the United States pays for its treasure bondsconsidered “zero risk.” That gap, called “Spread”, is measured at basic points: if Argentina marks 1,500, it means that its bonds pay 15% more interest than Americans.
The most used index is the EMBI (Emerging Markets Bond Index) of JP Morgan. But behind that figure there are a mixture of factors: from the Institutional stability to the commercial balancethrough the confidence in the political course. A minister who renounces untimely or a judicial ruling that shakes the Casa Rosada, can shoot the country risk as much as a Inflation data or export drop.
Specialists usually repeat that “Markets hate uncertainty”And Argentina has a master’s degree in that area: exchange crises, defaults, agreements with the IMF that are reviewed halfway and an inflation history that scares any creditor.
“Famous” country records
The risks of ignoring the Bimonary country
Recent history is full of episodes where the country risk shot. During the government of Mauricio Macriafter the 2019 step who anticipated the arrival of Alberto Fernández, beat the 2,500 pointsmarking a record of distrust. In 2020, already with the front of all in power and in the middle of the pandemic, the index climbed more than 4,500 pointsa level comparable to Default of 2001.
With Milei, the film had a turbulent start: the 2,102 points in January 2024 They lit all the alarms. However, months later, the money laundering and the appetite of investors by the Argentine bonds led the index to drill the 600 pointsthe lowest value in two decades. A postcard that lasted little: in September 2025, with the adverse result in Buenos Aires, it brushed again the 1,500 points.
Source: Ambito
