Through Decree 682/2025the government defined the Elimination of export rights for Cereals and oilseeds until October 31, or until “The sum of registrations of affidavits of sworn sale abroad (DJVE) is reached for an equivalent amount of S7,000 million, the first thing that happens”.
“Beyond that, It is a measure clearly oriented to ‘exchange populism’: Resign fiscal surplus for holding an out -of -balance exchange rate. Meanwhile ‘There is no money’ for retirees, disabled, the clawetc. “, emphasized the economist Federico Machado.
In the middle of a Pressing market Until last week for the scarce of dollars, where the central had to intervene with US $ 1,100 million After the dollar reached the roof of the band, the foreign currency offer that grants the temporary elimination of retentions will give the government air, which seeks to arrive with a lower exchange rate to the October elections.
“Will it work? The demand for pesos comes into play. It is true that if the producer does not want pesos, he will find a way to repurify dollars. Likewise, the pesos/dollars of the economy is reduced, which Ceteris Paribus It should generate a bear pressure of the exchange rate. The problem is whether the set of improvised measures continues to disagree with expectations, generating even greater dollarization of the rest of the agents“Machado said, questioning the scope of the measure.
In addition to the offer of withholdings, a United States Treasury Loan. The market reacted positively after the support of the head of the US agency, Scott Besentto Argentina that would grant financing with a floor of U $ 10,000 million and could include a coin swap, purchase of pesos or purchase of Argentine bondsas anticipated Scope.
2) Lower collection
“This the only government that, given the adversities, responds by lowering taxes,” he cheered the presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni After the temporal elimination of retentions to bovine and poultry meat, of which the small print is not yet known. However, what is reduced from retentions will generate a Resignation of the fiscal surplusas Machado stood out.
He Total fiscal cost of the new government measure will be of the order of 0.23% of the gross internal product (GDP). Although in 2025 only 0.15% of GDP will be attributable (approximately US $ 1,000 million), since the Profit Tax It is taxed the following year. The latter would be 0.14% of GDP.
This figure, although it does not put the fiscal result of the national state in 2025, It generates a greater need for spending, since it adds to the promulgation of the Emergency Law in Disability and the possible promulgation of university and pediatric financing.
According to IAEFthree scenarios are assumed after the announcement to eliminate retentions:
- 40% of corn stock and 100% of the soybean stock;
- 60% corn and 90% soybeans; and
- 80% of the corn stock and 80% of soybeans.
“In terms of GDP, the direct cost ranges from 0.25% from GDP to 0.28% of GDP. For the National Government, if it is considered the possible increase in collection of the income tax and its distribution after co -participation to nation (approximately 8% of the reduction of export rights), The direct fiscal cost is reduced to 0.26% of GDP In scenario 1, at 0.24% on stage 2 and 0.23% in stage 3 “, they analyzed in a IAEF study.
On the other hand, it emphasizes that “according to the analysis of the export rights collection flow of the last four months of the 2026 budget, the forecast was lower than the total loss, therefore, therefore, The net fiscal cost attributable to 2025 is lower. Specifically, according to our calculations, the direct fiscal cost attributable to the year 2025 would be 0.15% of GDP (approximately US $ 1 billion) and the net of collection of the income tax of 0.14% of GDP. That is to say, The loss of collection would be equivalent to 46% of the fiscal surplus that arises from the 2026 budget of 0.3% of GDP.”, Says the report.
3) Moderate acceleration of inflation
The temporal elimination of export rights could also generate a “moderate” acceleration of retail inflation. “There are opposite effects,” he warns Rocío Bisangeconomist of Ecogo
While the temporal elimination of retentions will impact products such as Meat, flours and derivatives“the weight is small in the total chain and being a measure that would last until October,” the impact would be punctual and would depend on the available stock level“Bisang points out.
Although add the factor “stability” of the dollarthat would remove inflationary pressure, in a market with low consumption. “It is going to depend a little on what effect it ends,” he summarized.
For its part, Camilo Tiscorniaeconomist of C&T ASSOCIATEShighlights that the greatest direct impact could occur in meats and others will be generated in the production chain, coinciding with Bisang. The latter may not have a full transfer of the rise to consumer prices. “Some effect will end having, without any doubt,” he synthesized.
“With still economic activity, an automatic transfer is more complicated at prices. During the last week we saw that, despite the rise in the exchange rate, there was no greater effect on inflation. I think that the variation will have more to do with the financial situation and if it is stabilized or not. Besides, with the latest ads – of the treasure of the US The expert explained.
Source: Ambito
