To stop the climbing in the price of the dollar and sustain the current exchange scheme, the government announced at this beginning of the week a transient elimination of withholdingswhile the US Treasury confirmed that it will give the country a monetary help To defend the libertarian program. Analysts agree that in the short term this will draw the exchange rate down, although they discuss whether it is only a “exchange spring.”
In the last days of last week the Central Bank (BCRA) had to sell US $ 1,100 million so that the official exchange rate does not escape from the band’s roof. Even Friday he marked the tenth day with the greatest loss of currencies from 2003 to date.
At that rate, in just 20 business days, the dollars that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) contributed when the new debt agreement was signed, in April, would vain. Faced with this unsustainability, the economic team reacted, although far from leaving the band regime.
On the one hand, the Suppression of export rights for cereals and oilse. The objective of this measure is to encourage an export liquidation advancement, so that this supply of “green tickets” can give the demand and keep the wholesaler’s price at bay.
Delivery of retentions and greater offer of dollars: Bread for today, hunger for tomorrow?
However, many analysts warn that this is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. Lorenzo Sigaut Gravinadirector of macroeconomic analysis of the consultant balances, he said in dialogue with Scope that, despite the short -term relief that can be given, the decline in retentions also It means a lower supply of dollars later, so that intensifies the sensation of change of exchange regime.
This Monday the wholesale exchange rate sank 4.5% to $ 1,407, thus moving away from the band’s ceiling, today in almost $ 1,477. While Sigaut Gravina acknowledged that the government “could change expectations,” he put cold cloths and warned that “expect the effervescence to go down and what will be the specific help of the American treasure.”
Looking ahead, he does not see the dollar stabilizing away from the roof of the band beyond one or two weeks. “As the elections approach, the investor may feel that it is his last option to dollarize“, forecast.
It is worth remembering that this government had transiently removed the withholdings for soybeans and corn. This allowed in July the gap between the dollars that entered the BCRA for the trade balance of goods, and what Indec recorded for effective exports and imports, is the highest since January 2024, when the postponement of deadlines to pay for purchases abroad was still in force. In addition, the balance of the BCRA was the highest since September 2022, the month of the first “SOJA dollar” implemented by Sergio Massa.
But the effect of these decisions is usually ephemeral. In addition, the Caputo team must find a way to prevent agricultural producers from dollarizing the weights from the liquidation.
Trump provides strong support to the Deilei program: Will you reach to keep the dollar at bay?
Regarding the US financing, on Monday morning the holder of the treasure of the main world power, Scott Besent said that Donald Trump’s management is “willing to do what is necessary to support Argentina”. Among the options that are considered is a swap, direct purchases of foreign debt and purchases of US debt.
While they still have to see the details, Nau BernuesCEO of Quaestus Advisory, believes that “in this new context and after the shock of expectations, the dollar can stabilize without touching the band in the coming weeks.” “The feeling is that the government managed to reverse the negative trend and any trial attempt at the dollar would not have the same force“He said.
Something less optimistic was the doctor in economics, and former director of the BCRA, Jorge Carrerasince he warned that what is implicit in official announcements is that “In November there will be a strong devaluation and change of exchange-moneary regime “.
Although he clarified that “a dollar at $ 1,700/$ 1,800 is not a bad number in real terms looking at historical moments,” he said that the decision not to accumulate reservations since April “will force devalue more than necessary until external accounts improve. “In that sense, he suggested from the government to learn from the mistakes of the past and buy dollars while enjoying the currencies of the field and the US.
For its part, the economist Jorge Neyro He stressed to the national legislative elections of October 26 as a relevant factor. “If the fears of the market for the electoral result do not increase, the dollar can be stabilized away from the roof until that moment“
However, he argued that “the idea that post October economic policy will have to change“
The specialists’ eyes show that the Government will be difficult to maintain this price of the dollar for a long time. Meanwhile, the accumulation of reservations, and the coordination of expectations through the delineation of a exchange program that provides better future perspectives, are tools that can contribute to avoid disruptive leaps in the currency.
Source: Ambito
