The OECD raised its global growth projection by 2025 to 3.2%, but warned that the full impact of Trump tariffs is not yet reflected in the activity. The United States and the Eurozone show deceleration signals, while China and other emerging will hold the world economy engine.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday presented its quarterly perspective report, in which it reviewed its world growth projection by 2025. Now it expects the global economy to expand a 3.2%three tenths above the June estimate.
Despite the strong increase in tariffs arranged by US President Donald Trumpthe agency considers that the world economy is showing a Resilience greater than expected. However, it warns that the full impact of these protectionist measures has not yet been felt, so more contractive effects could appear in the coming months.
United States and Europe: deceleration signs
The OECD projects that the United States GDP It will grow 1.8% in 2025which implies a marked deceleration with respect to 2.8% of 2024. by 2026, growth would be further reduced, until the 1.5%in what the organization interprets as the direct cost of Trump’s restrictive commercial policies.
In the euro zonegrowth will be moderate: 1.2% in 2025 and 1% in 2026. Spainon the other hand, it will stand out with an expansion of 2.6% in 2025 and of 2% in 2026positioning itself as one of the most dynamic economies in the region.
The report shows a more favorable panorama for emerging economies. In Asia, China It would grow a 4.9% in 2025 and a 4.4% in 2026supported by a greater expansion of its industry and consumption. Brazil would have a more moderate growth of 2.3% in 2025while Mexico would slightly improve with rates of 0.8% and 1.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
OECD45
According to the OECD, global growth has remained firm in part by the advancement of production and trade in the face of new tariffs, which led many companies to accelerate their activity to anticipate the highest costs.
However, the agency warns cooling signals in South Korea, Germany and Brazilas well as in the United States consumption, Eurozone and China. It also mentions future risks linked to possible new tariff increases, the increase in global indebtedness and pressure on interest rates.
In terms of inflationthe chief economist of the OECD, Álvaro Pereirait expects that the levels will remain high in 2025, especially in the United States, driven by the increase in food prices in economies such as Japan and South Africa.
Source: Ambito
