The Government has its priorities well. This Monday he eliminated temporarily withholdings to agriculture -Grans and bovine and agricultural meats- at the same time that it promulgated the emergency law in disability, previously vetoed and then endorsed by Congress. Although, through it Decree 681/2025, Published in the Official Gazette, he asked the Legislative Power to report the items to be able to finance the law, which prevents compliance and its implementation.
The elimination of retentions to the field was labeled as a measure of “exchange populism”, In the words of the economist Federico Machadosince, in his opinion, his only objective is “Resign the surplus” to reach the mid -term elections with a stabilized dollar, although “Out of balance”.
Beyond the grandiloquence of calling “exchange populism” to the Elimination of withholdingsthe countercara of this measure ends up being the suspension of the emergency law in disability, which makes clear not only the priorities but the economic sectors that the government benefits.
Disability elimination and disability law in numbers
The Government estimated that the cost of the implementation of the Emergency law in disability would be 0.35% of the internal gross product (GDP), or $ 3 billion, which today’s wholesale exchange rate ($ 1,353) would be US $ 2,200 million.
However, from PXQfor their part, they had estimated in August that the expense of the norm endorsed by the Congress would be of 0.21% of the GDP in 2025 And they added that it would currently be a bit lower, since it is later applied, the lower the fiscal cost will be.
Meanwhile, the cost of Temporary elimination of grain withholdings It is estimated, according to Iarafthat would be in the Order of 0.23% of GDP. Although in 2025 only 0.15% of GDP will be attributable (approximately US $ 1,000 million), since the Profit Tax It is taxed the following year. The latter would be 0.14% of the GDP.
“The loss of collection would be equivalent to 46% of the fiscal surplus that arises from the 2026 budget of 0.3% of GDP (by 2025)”details the report of the Iaraf.
The Temporary elimination of withholdings to meats would have a lower impact: foreign sales of refrigerated and frozen bovine meat They were from U $ S393.5 million in Augustaccording to him ABC Consortium. Of that exported value, the Meat pays a 5% retention In the Novillo category (although until February it was 6.75%), which represents 68% of the amount. That is, little more than U,13 million They go to the Treasury coffers.
“Specifically of meat, it will not remove much from the treasury, a first preliminary calculation gives about US $20 million. But it depends on whether or not exports are advanced to take advantage of retentions,” said the economist at this point Guido Zack, of Found, In dialogue with Scope.
“It is a bad sign in every way, in the face of society but also towards agriculture. Instead of having a consistent public policy is used to temporary measures And very disruptive to correct problems that many months ago manifested themselves in the economy, “said an economist who decided to reserve his identity.
It is that the possibility of granting him an elimination of retentions to the field that is transitory and even the elections to achieve a cheaper exchange rate was not well seen; It is considered a patch about the background problem that is the lack of reservations.
Likewise, the markets celebrated the possibility of a new debt agreement this time with the United States Treasury, only seen during the tequila crisis in the ’90s. After the meeting between Donald Trump and Javier Milei, the American tycoon stressed that “his friend” has his “complete and total support” for re -election as president, although this is not what is settled at the polls next October. “He will never let them down!” Trump closed.
It is estimated that the treasure loan floor would be US $ 10,000 that could include, among others, SWAP lines, direct currency purchases and public debt purchasesas anticipated Scope.
For Guido Zack Not launching the emergency law in disability is a “madness”, because it is a “cruelty” few times seen in an Argentine government. “The lack of application of the norm is given under the argument that ‘there is no money’ and that it generates a problem in the public budget, the truth is that it is not such a significant amount, in fact it is a minor amount that would not even imply the loss of the primary surplus, which there is no economic reason to finance the disability program, eventually the reason is ideological,” he analyzed.
Meanwhile, Rocío Bisang, of Ecogo, He stressed that “the measure seems a contradiction, there is money for the field but not for the disabled”, although it includes that the measure responds purely and exclusively to the need for “fresh dollars” to press the downward currency that to a decision of “expense” or even “favor (although it does) to a sector.”
“Beyond this measure, I believe that the withholdings would have to tend down, they are a tremendously distortive tax. And on the other hand, despite personal appreciations about the role of the State and if it is morally okay or not, I think it is not free for the government to put obstacles on laws such as disability. In part by political capital but also because of what it means in terms of governance and for democracy. Have a cost in the economy, “the economist observed.
On the removal of retentions, Zack adds that Funda proposes a comprehensive reform of the tax system, since “this is a more patch and not only one more patch, but a temporary patch.”
“The Argentine agricultural sector had a much worse performance than that of other Latin American countries and we think that the withholdings have a lot to do with that. In an economy that is missing from dollars, which is one of the main reasons for economic stagnation and also of inflation, putting taxes to the main export sector does not seem to be a very good idea. That is why we propose that elimination. No agricultural producer will that there will be no retentions for a month and a half, “Zack explained.
Source: Ambito
