The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) estimated that in August the industry failed to cut its negative streak. In a context of low internal consumption, drop in exports and strong rise from interest rates, sectoral data were not encouraging, while forward perspectives do not improve either.
Through a report from its study center, the UIA predicted a 3% year -on -year fall In the activity. Meanwhile, although the available sector indicators reflect a strong monthly setback, from the entity that brings together industrial entrepreneurs, they clarified to Scope That the variation of electric power consumption (-0.4%) allows us to enhance “a similar level, or perhaps a little lower than July, which is already a low level.”
Industry: August sector data were not encouraging
From the survey of the UIA it follows that the main monthly casualties of August were associated with activities related to construction, since Cement offices collapsed -9%without seasonality, and The built index backed -8.6%. Within this group, the UIA stressed as Fundamental factor of this variation to the rate rise.
Also, a decline of -13% in the patented industrial machinery, of -2.3% in the production of metalworking, and of -7% in the production of cars. Regarding the automotive data, the report explained that “it responded to a seasonal adjustment since it was August with lower units produced in the last three years, largely due to a deceleration of exports.”
The decrease in exports was also verified in the Shipping to Brazil, the main commercial partner, which were reduced -11.3% Regarding July. Along the same lines, the liquidation of currencies by agribusiness collapsed -48.5% “due to a decrease in exports in relation to the previous months of thick harvest, and by a high comparison base of July (liquidated record month) given the completion of temporary reduction of the withholdings.
The industry comes to suffer three falls in line and the forward perspectives do not improve
It is worth remembering that INDEC’s latest data showed that In July the industry suffered its third consecutive monthly decline (-2.3%). Within the most important divisions of the Industrial Production Index (IPI), the ones that suffered most were clothing (-4.8%), basic metal industries (-2.6%) and food and drinks (-2.3%). Likewise, strong casualties in the manufacture of vehicles and textile products also highlighted.
Regarding a year ago the IPI was reduced 1.1%. The comparison is even more alarming when performed against 2022 and 2023, since it reflects a deterioration close to 10%.
Forward the perspectives are not encouraging either. This week INDEC published a survey in which 50.9% of industrial companies said in August that the level of orders was “below normal.”
Most companies (49.4%) selected “insufficient domestic demand” as the most important factor that limits its production. However, the weight of this variable was reduced with respect to the previous month, leading to the growth of others, mainly to “financial problems.”
In a month in which the interest rate of advances to companies tripled, The percentage of companies that accused had serious difficulties in accessing credit climbed 32.5% of the total, when in May that percentage was 19.5%.
Under this scenario, only 15% of firms expect to increase production in the next three months, while Only 4% expect to increase employment between September and November.
Source: Ambito
